WASHINGTON - The International Monetary Fund
cut its 2008 outlook for world economic growth for the second
time this year, in a move that acknowledged housing and credit
problems in the United States were exacting a heavy toll on the
global economy.
The IMF said it expects the pace of global
growth to slow to 3.7 percent this year, down from its January
forecast of 4.1 percent and lower still from the 4.8 percent
rate it predicted in October last year.
The latest revision puts world growth at its
lowest since 2002, when growth was 3.1 percent, according to IMF
data.
"I can confirm the IMF’s current aggregate
world growth forecast for 2008 is 3.7 percent," an IMF spokesman
said, confirming reports about the IMF’s World Economic Outlook
due on April 9.
Earlier on Thursday, IMF Chief Economist
Simon Johnson said the US economy has come to "a virtual
standstill" and will remain weak in coming quarters owing to
deeper problems in housing and credit markets.
Still, Johnson avoided saying the United
States was in recession. Media have reported that the IMF growth
outlook will put US economic growth for 2008 at 0.5 percent from
a previous forecast of 1.5 percent.
"Notwithstanding the strong response from US
policy-makers, tighter financial conditions, higher energy
prices, softer labor markets and the weak housing market all
conspire to weigh heavily on the (US) economy in the near term,"
Johnson told reporters.
Speaking before the release of the
twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, he said economic growth in
Europe would also slow this year, perhaps with some lag, because
of the United States’ weak performance.
He said the possibility of deeper and more
protracted strains in financial markets posed the biggest threat
to the world economy, with economic growth in major emerging
economies also likely to weaken, although it should stay above
trend.
"An intensification of problems in the US
housing and credit markets could further slow the US economy and
weigh on the arc of recovery," Johnson said.
Johnson said Europe was particularly
vulnerable to financial spillovers from deeper credit market
problems in the United States, while a possible correction in
some of Europe’s housing markets could weigh on consumption and
consumer confidence.
He said the market woes could also slow
financial flows into emerging and developing countries,
including in Eastern Europe, which have benefited from large
banking inflows in recent years.
The IMF is expected to lower its growth
forecast for the 15-nation euro zone to 1.3 percent in next
week’s WEO, European Union sources told Reuters in Brussels, a
downward revision from 1.8 percent in January.
Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker, said
on Thursday that the IMF’s growth forecast for the euro zone was
slightly over-pessimistic.
The IMF’s Johnson said weaker global growth
could slow exports and prompt a fall in commodity prices, which
have stayed strong despite the global economic downturn.
He also cautioned that spiraling food prices
and higher oil prices had pushed up inflation pressures
worldwide.
Economists at the Washington-based Peterson
Institute on Thursday forecast world growth of 3.8 percent in
2008, down from 4.7 percent in 2007, led by a decline in demand
growth in the United States.
They said the US economy was on the verge of,
and perhaps already in, outright recession and put US growth at
barely more than 1 percent in 2008.
"So far, the evidence points to less of a
slowdown in other industrial countries, while most emerging
economies appear likely to maintain quite strong, albeit
somewhat slower growth," the institute said. – Reuters