The last time we witnessed queues for government-subsidized rice, the country was still under martial law. But it is happening again now amid claims that the economy is stronger than ever.

The truth is that the current "rice crisis" is an issue of price rather than supply. There are still enough global rice stocks to feed everybody, granted that an oversupply will naturally bring down rice prices everywhere. But with rice cultivation under pressure from other more commercially profitable crops and decreasing arable lands, rice is destined to become more and more expensive. The fact that the government’s buying rate for palay has already been increased to P17 per kilo is an admission that the rice to be obtained will hit the market at around P35 per kilo at current recovery rates.

According to the Food and Agriculture Office (FAO) of the United Nations, global rice production is expected to increase this year by 12 million tons or 1.8 percent if normal weather conditions prevail. And, that this "production increases would ease the current very tight supply situation in key rice producing countries."

FAO even notes: "Sizable production increases are expected in all the major Asian rice producing countries, especially Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Thailand, where supply and demand are currently rather stretched. Governments in these countries have already announced a series of incentives to raise production."

But "international rice trade is expected to decrease, mainly due to restrictions in main exporting countries," FAO adds, pointing out that "higher rice production in 2008 could reduce the pressure, but short-term volatility will probably continue, given the very limited supplies available from stocks. This implies that the market may react very strongly to any good or bad news about crops or policies."

FAO cites the imposition of minimum export prices, export taxes or export quotas and bans by China, India, Egypt, Vietnam and Cambodia that are expected to reduce rice exported from these countries. Bad news, indeed, for a rice-importing country like the Philippines as global rice prices have escalated by about 20 percent since the start of the year.

Very clearly then, this is not one of those passing problems. We can expect a recurring, if not worsening of the situation. It touches the very heart of our national food security. With less and less land devoted to rice production coupled with increasing productions costs, delivering affordable rice will be a tremendous challenge. One that requires a battery of measures and tons of political will to implement. In the long-term, we cannot rely on continued importation to meet our domestic requirements. We must become self-sufficient with regards to food production, rice in particular.

In this light, there is a need to pass and implement a comprehensive national land-use policy as well as national physical framework plan to ensure that we will have enough arable land to be devoted to rice production. At the rate the private sector is converting agricultural lands for commercial, residential and industrial purposes, we may be left with nothing but the most hostile lands to be devoted to producing staple crops.