e are believers in
the market, unlike some people we know who sport a PhD in Economics but appear
oblivious to the principles of their discipline. So when prices are climbing, we
are sure there’s either a surge in demand or a drop in the supply or both.
In the case of rice, the evidence is there for all to see.
The cheapest commercial rice is now P34 a kilo, from P24 a kilo two months back.
That’s a 58 percent increase in prices, not 10 percent as some idiots in
Malacañang tell us. We can assume with reasonable certainty that the demand for
rice is steady, increasing only in parallel with growth in the population.
Therefore, there must be a shortage in supply.
Agriculture Secretary Art Yap, however, insists that rice
harvests are increasing. The figure we last heard from Malacañang is an increase
of 6 percent this year compared to last year.
What Yap allows is a tight supply of rice in the world market
which is the reason prices for class B Vietnam rice are now close to $800 a ton.
Still, Yap could not give a satisfactory explanation why the National Food
Authority is set to import 2.2 million tons of rice this year, compared to 1.5
million tons in previous years.
Could it be that the 6 percent projected increase this year
is based on a scenario of a bumper crop for the main harvest starting in
October? That the dry season harvest, which started in March in some places, is
in fact below previous levels?
Palay prices are the best indicator of this. Farm gate prices
are at P17 a kilo the last time we checked. This was the reason the NFA was
prompted to raise its buying price to P17, from the previous P12. By now, we
guess private traders are already buying at P19 to P20, given the usual P2 to P3
a kilo premium of their buying prices over NFA’s.
To repeat the evidence of a rice shortage is there for all to
see.
Oddly enough, there are some sectors which are starting to
doubt that the scarcity of the staple is real. Their suspicion is Gloria is
fanning fears of a crisis so people could be distracted from the corruption
scandals hounding her administration. They also suspect importation of rice is
being rushed so some persons close to Malacañang could make a killing via their
usual 10 percent commission.
Perhaps the skepticism is not strange after all. People tend to believe the
worst about Gloria. And, not so strangely enough, it is very likely that the
usual suspects are already lining their pockets thick at the expense of the
people’s hunger and misery.
