It’s official. Economic growth is expected to slowdown to between 3.1 and 4.1 percent as the country faces a tougher environment this year.

Global output is seen falling and the Philippines is not expected to escape its impact, economic managers said in their latest downscaling of assumptions.

Before the latest review, managers were hopeful the country could manage a growth of between 3.7 and 4.4 percent.

Exports are seen contracting further by between 13 and 15 percent, from an earlier assumption of a 6 to 8 percent decline.

Import are seen dropping between 12 and14 percent, compared to an earlier projection of 8 to 10 percent.

Dennis Arroyo, director for policy planning of the National Economic and Development Authority, said manufacturing output is headed for a further contraction, following a 19.9 percent decline in January.

The peso is seen depreciating between P46 and P50 to $1, compared to an earlier projection of P45–P48 to $1.

Inflation is targeted at 2.5-4.5 percent from the earlier 3-5 percent.

Arroyo said the projected flat growth in deployment of overseas workers is another reason for expectations of a more severe slowdown.

Remittances represent an important boost to consumption which accounts for 70 percent of gross domestic product.

The government also revised its programmed deficit to P199 billion (2.5 percent of GDP) compared to an earlier P177.2 billion (2.2 percent of GDP) target.

Arroyo said the revision took into account the possibility of lower tax revenue generations due to slower growth in output.

Lending agencies have come up with lower growth outlook. The International Monetary Fund projects a growth of 2.25 percent, the World Bank 1.9 percent and the Asian Development Bank 2.5 percent.

Among the credit rating agencies, Moody’s is most optimistic with a 3.3 percent growth estimate, followed by Fitch’s with 2 percent and Standard & Poor’s with 2.2 percent.