SINGAPORE — Standard & Poor’s Ratings
Services on Friday affirmed its BB-/B foreign currency and BB+/B
local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Philippines with
a stable outlook.
The ratings reflect the sharply improved
external liquidity position, which, combined with fiscal
consolidation efforts and attendant decrease in external
borrowing, is yielding a substantially lower net external debt
position. This is ameliorating one of the key vulnerabilities of
the sovereign, given that over 40 percent of its debt is
denominated in foreign currency. The ratings also take into
account continued efforts to increase tax revenues from a low 14
percent of GDP and the country’s track record of steady economic
growth.
"Despite these advances, a number of key debt
ratios reveal a still-high level of vulnerability to economic
shocks or adverse policy shifts than what is generally
associated with this rating category," said Standard & Poor’s
credit analyst Agost Benard.
Total public sector debt at 64.3 percent of
2007 GDP, is well above the BB median 38.5 percent while debt-to
revenue ratio of 345 percent, against the BB median 146 percent
points to much weaker debt service capacity.
In addition to the high public leverage, the
low revenue base is also a key reason behind an extended period
of meager public investment.
"This left the Philippine economy with
inadequate infrastructure, unable to fully exploit growth
opportunities," Benard said.
The stable outlook on the rating balances
increasingly robust external liquidity and significant
improvements in general government and public sector financial
performance, against continued risks to revenue and deficit
targets in light of weak collection efficiency.
The outlook could be revised to positive on evidence that
revenue-generating capacity has undergone a fundamental
improvement. However, the outlook on the ratings could be
lowered if fiscal correction is endangered by stalling reforms
or weakening revenue effort, such that fiscal deficits begin to
rise, or that budget goals can only be met through continued
expenditure compression at the expense of future growth
prospects.