emember
Agriculture Secretary Arturo Yap's projection that the country is assured of
ample rice supply until the end of the year? Yap's confidence was based on what
he claimed was a 7.3 million ton harvest during the dry cropping season and an
expected harvest of 10 million metric tons during the main harvest season
starting October.
That's a projected record harvest of 17.3 million tons which
when supplemented by imported rice already in NFA warehouses would be able to
feed the country through the year.
We will take at face value Yap's claim we will have enough
rice until December. The next question that logically follows is what is the
expected supply situation from January to May, the latter being the month when
the main dry season harvest comes in? The likelihood is the country would again
buy heavily from the international rice market, repeating what happened during
the second quarter of this year when NFA purchases bid up prices to a record
$1,000 plus per ton.
That - hold on to your seats, folks - is the good news. If
Yap's projected 10 million ton harvest would turn out to be way off the mark, we
could end up worse off than we were three months ago.
In the Cabinet-NEDA meeting the other day, Yap reported that
fertilizer usage has dropped 30 percent because of soaring prices. Fertilizer
now sells for P2,000 a bag, double the old price. The drop in fertilizer usage
took place despite government subsidies totaling P947 million.
Following Yap's situationer, Arroyo reportedly ordered that
the fertilizer subsidy program be stepped up. No figures were mentioned,
although we can reasonably assume money is not a problem, considering the
windfall revenues from VAT.
But if stepping up the fertilizer subsidy means more of the
same, we are still in the realm of band-aid solutions. The subsidy program gives
each farmer a maximum of two coupons worth P250 each. At P2,000 a bag, that
means a total discount of P500 for two bags. At the recommended six bags per
hectare usage, that means a P500 discount on P12,000 total fertilizer cost, or
less than 5 percent.
Also let us remember the words of the Ecclesiastes. "For
everything there is a season. a time to sow and a time to reap." Even as Gloria
Arroyo and her Cabinet were meeting, the rainy season was already halfway over.
Sure, the rice planting window does not close until September
for rain-fed farms. What about the rice plants already on the ground which need
fertilizers 25 to 30 days after transplanting?
A record harvest of 10 million tons during the main cropping season sounds
like fantasy at this point, which should no longer be a surprise. After all,
we're living in Gloria's never never land of "ramdam ang kaunlaran."
