Playing into Gloria's hands

'If this looks like a full-grown version of Gloria's inchoate fascism, it is.'

An all-out offensive will require placing the country on a war footing and in such a national mobilization - likely requiring the declaration of martial law - who does the opposition think will end up sitting firmly on the saddle if not the commander-in-chief?

Gloria has run out of ways to enable her to stay in power beyond 2010. The proposed shift to a parliamentary form of government is dead in the water. A coup against the constitutional order is her remaining option. Such a coup can only take the form of the declaration of martial law. With martial rule in place, postponing the 2010 elections and amending the charter will not be far behind.

And what about the cost? Majority of senators have expressed support for the passage of a supplemental budget to bankroll a stepped-up war against the Muslim rebels. The government at the moment is scarcely able to provide safety nets for our people in the face of spiraling costs of basic necessities. There is not enough money for education and for health services, let alone for the building of hard infrastructure needed to push the country's economic development.

Here now come our senators declaring they are ready and willing to spend scarce resources for guns and bullets.

That's only the material cost of renewed war in Mindanao. The social cost would be beyond imagining. Thousands of lives would be lost. Hundreds of thousands of families would be displaced. Over time, as the war took its toll, the country would be divided between those who would pursue war at whatever cost and those who would agree to the carving out of an independent Islamic state from the national territory just to put an end to bloodletting and economic ruination.

As we have repeatedly been saying in this space, we cannot win what is tantamount to a colonial war without damaging - perhaps beyond salvage - the institutions that guarantee our fundamental liberties, our democratic processes, the rule of law and our culture of tolerance.

Those who warn of a civil war in the South are wrong. Open warfare between the Christian communities, backed by the Manila government, and the Muslims would not be a civil war. It would be a genocidal war against the Muslim minority given the overwhelming military superiority of the national government.

The real threat would be of a civil war among the majority themselves. Let's sketch its possible contours.

On one side would be those who continue to believe in the libertarian and democratic principles upon which the Republic was founded. These are the same people who, following from these bedrock principles, would recognize the legitimate demand of a second class and long-neglected minority to rule themselves, hopefully within the framework of the Republic

On the other side would be those who would deny us our rights, destroy our hallowed institutions, and claim over-lordship on the whole society in the guise of defending every inch of the national territory.