WHILE we have almost twenty men and women who hope to be
president of the land, and who, in one way or the other, have expressed such
intent, we do not have enough men and women to fill up the slates of these
presidential wannabes.
Almost all those who have announced presidential quests have
declared their intent to field a senatorial slate, but there are very few
takers, as of now.
There are quite a number of re-electionists in the present
Senate, namely, Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, his pro-tempore, Jinggoy
Estrada, and Senators Miriam Defensor Santiago, Pia Cayetano, Jamby Madrigal,
Richard "Dick" Gordon, Ramon "Bong" Revilla, Lito Lapid, even Mar Roxas, who,
along with Dick and Jamby, would rather be president. Sen. Aquilino Pimentel Jr.
and Rodolfo Biazon are "graduating" after two consecutive terms, but while
Nene’s Koko is yet hoping to unseat Migs Zubiri, Pong wants to bequeath his seat
to his congressman-son Ruffy of Muntinglupa.
On the assumption that Mar goes for the presidency, while
Jamby and Dick lower their sights to re-election, those likely to run for
senator once more next year are Enrile, Estrada, Defensor-Santiago, Cayetano,
Revilla, plus Gordon and Madrigal. That’s seven. Lito Lapid wants to go back to
the Pampanga capitol. Assuming that Koko’s protest is yet unresolved before
November 30, he is likely to run for election, foregoing protest, as his father
in 1998 did.
If we go by the Pulse Asia May 4-17 Ulat ng Bayan, most of
these incumbents are doing well. The rankings are in this order: Roxas, Estrada,
Pia Cayetano, Miriam, Revilla, Jamby, Frank Drilon, Ralph Recto, Koko Pimentel,
Jojo Binay, Tito Sotto, Serge Osmeña, Dick Gordon, JPE, Edu Manzano, Ted Failon,
Juan Flavier, Lito Lapid, TG Guingona, and Ruffy Biazon in the top 20. All have
high name recall.
Realistically therefore, if the incumbents seek re-election,
they are likely to win, with the probable exception of Lapid, especially since
he is likely to run, if at all, in the line-up favored by his kabalen Gloria.
Drilon and Osmeña, if they should run, are likely shoo-ins as well, unless
Gloria Mac’s newest spokesman, Romy Mak, succeeds in getting Comelec, and
eventually the Supreme Court, to uphold his interpretation of the Constitution
that hiatus between term limits and subsequent election ought to be an entire
"term" of six years and not just three.
Thus, it will be a tight contest for those who hope to be
senator for the first time. Well-known surnames like Biazon and Guingona, now
borne by sons who wish to be senator also, have a decided advantage. Media and
television celebrities like Edu Manzano and Ted Failon also have clear awareness
that they only need convert into votes. The recent resignations of Recto as NEDA
chief, and Manzano from the Optical Media Board indicate their desire to run for
a Senate seat, and could be viewed as an attempt to distance themselves from a
possible "kiss of death," Gloria’s that is.
Recto may run with his Wednesday dinner partner Manny Villar,
and Edu will be either with Chiz or Mar. Failon denies interest, but you never
can tell. Erap is wooing him, and so is Mar.
In the administration ranks, only Pingkoy Duque of DOH and
TESDA’s Buboy Syjuco seem raring to run with whosoever their Doña chooses, be it
Noli or Gibo. Running with them would be re-electionists Miriam and Bong. If he
does not run for a local post in Quezon City, Tito Sotto might make another try,
also with GMA’s choice. Or, eschewing her kiss, he may also line up to Villar’s
money.
Tourism’s Ace Durano and Education’s Jesli Lapus are likely
to run with their political party, the NPC, with either Chiz or Loren as
standard-bearer. That will save them from "Gloria’s kiss."
As of now therefore, the Gloria candidate can count only on
Miriam and Bong, Duque and Sotto, as senatorial candidates, possibly with Lito
Lapid if the Arroyos do not give him back the kapitolyo in San Fernando. Pichay
might try once more, and resurrect himself as a cabbage this time. So there:
Miriam, Bong, Duque, Syjuco, with Sotto, Pichay, possibly Gary Teves, and no
more at this point in time. Maybe Pagcor’s Genuino, who also dreams of the
presidency. Mike Defensor is reluctant to make another run.
But Miriam wants to collect 200 million if Villar will get
her, and Teves is also being wooed by the owner of the Nacionalista Party. His
sister, Bebot Teves, is the mother of Rajo Laurel of the Nacionalista Laurels.
But Gary has to improve his ratings, with 71 percent awareness and a conversion
rate of only 2.8 percent as of mid-May this year, no matter that he is touted as
Asia’s best finance minister. Still a long way to go to reach Number 12.
Who will run with Erap? Senate President Enrile has indicated
his desire to join Erap in his jeep, along with Jinggoy, of course. If Jojo
Binay decides to lower his sights, he most likely would join Erap too, either as
vice-president or as senator. But Erap’s run is chancy, no matter what his
lawyers say, now including Koko Pimentel, who might also end up running for
senator either with Erap or Villar. What happens to these candidates if the
Supreme Court declare finis to Erap’s re-run? You can’t win as a vice-president
with no president, nor as senator abandoned by your presidential candidate. And
surely the wise lawyer-politician that Enrile is, he knows that. He just does
not want to hurt a friend’s feelings nor bruise his ego.
Which is why JPE, Jinggoy and Binay are likely to have
"reserved" seats in the tickets of either Chiz or Mar, just in case. That makes
it easier for the two candidates to choose only nine more candidates. Mar will
have Drilon, Biazon, Risa Hontiveros, Leah Navarro, Cory Quirino, possibly Neric
Acosta. Quien mas? Jamby and Dick, in case they reconsider their presidential
quests.
But JPE, Jinggoy and Binay would likely run with Chiz instead
of Mar. To them, the NPC would likely add their Ace Durano, Jesli Lapus, and
Ompong Plaza of Agusan. And Chiz, if he is chosen the NPC standard-bearer
instead of Loren, will try to add his former congressional buddies TG Guingona
(who is with the NP) and Ted Casino of Bayan, plus Edu Manzano, Toots Ople (Ka
Blas’ daughter who runs a foundation helping workers and OFW’s) and FPJ and
Susan’s daughter Grace Poe.
As for Villar, he has Pia Cayetano, Adel Tamano, Satur Ocampo,
Col. Ariel Querubin, possibly TG Guingona, most likely Ralph Recto, and of
course Miriam, if Villar thinks that at 200 million, up-front, she is worth it.
Maybe he can ask Roy Golez to forsake a mayoralty run in Parañaque, and try his
luck in the Senate. Vice-Governor Rolex Suplico of Iloilo has decided to seek
his old congressional seat in Iloilo’s sixth district rather than risk a chancy
and expensive senatorial run. Butz Aquino’s name is mentioned, but he personally
confided that he has little desire to run once more.
In the wings, mentioned as a senator-hopeful, is Rep.
Bongbong Marcos of Ilocos Norte, who is close to all the four leading opposition
presidential wannabe’s --- Erap, Chiz, Villar and Mar (Bongbong’s wife Lisa is a
cousin of Mar from the Araneta side). And ZTE-NBN whistleblowers Joey de Venecia
and Jun Lozada, but if they do plunge into the fray, there are as yet no clear
indications under whose presidential ticket they would run. There is Among Ed
Panlilio and Grace Padaca, both announced presidentiables, who might yet run for
senator, likely with Mar Roxas. Also mentioned are Sonia Roco, the
educator-widow of Sen. Raul Roco, and Rep. Liza Maza of Gabriela. (It looks like
the parliamentary Left has decided to distribute their chances among the leading
presidentiables.)
And there is Brig. Gen. Danny Lim of Nueva Vizcaya, now
jailed in Camp Crame in the company of Senator Sonny Trillanes, who astounded
everyone by winning in 2007, sight unseen and voice hardly heard. Lim hopes to
duplicate Trillanes’ feat, this time running under the banners of either Chiz or
Mar, definitely not Villar’s.
The point is that if there are four to five presidential
candidates, there will be anywhere from 48 to 60 senatorial candidates, and more
if the other "also-runs" insist on fielding their complete or incomplete
senatorial "fillers". Pang-fill-in the blanks. And there aren’t that many who
are either foolhardy enough to go for broke, or have money enough to buy costly
advertising air time, or would run for the fun of it, not the "funds" of it,
because little if any are forthcoming for "saling-cats".
Which is probably why guys like Adel Tamano have made an
early beeline to the doorsteps of the old Laurel mansion which Manny Villar
bought from distinguished legacy through now-discovered debatably dubious means.
Pera-pera lang iyan.
