Moody’s Economy.com yesterday said Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) economies have emerged from the perceived recession, but said that the Philippines’ second quarter GDP may have grown lower compared to the first quarter’s 0.4 percent.

"In the Philippines, growth in year-on-year terms will fall; Moody’s Economy.com expects a 0.1 percent year-on-year gain in the second quarter, down from 0.4 percent in the first," Alaistair Chan, Moody’s Economy.com associate economist, said.

But he added that this drop stems from a strong result for the second quarter of 2008.

He also said that output is expected to have risen compared with the previous quarter.

GDP results for the second quarter will be out tomorrow and economists have mixed forecasts — ranging from a 1 percent growth to a 0.1 percent contraction.

Dennis Arroyo, the National Economic and Development Authority’s (NEDA) director for national planning and policy staff, said economy may have contracted during the second quarter this year, possibly the first time the country’s output shrank in more than 10 years.

From April to June, growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) could have hit anywhere from -0.1 to 0.9 percent, Arroyo said.

In the first quarter, the country registered a GDP growth of only 0.4 percent.

Elsewhere in the region, Chan said that nearly all Asean economies have emerged from recession, according to second quarter GDP results. Output was lower than in the same period a year earlier but higher than in the first quarter.

Thailand grew 2.3 percent seasonally adjusted in the second quarter, or 9.5 percent on an annualized basis with government spending as a decisive factor.

In Singapore, electronics restocking and a surge in pharmaceutical production enabled the economy to grow 20.7 percent annualized in the quarter.

Indonesia will be one of the few countries in the world to record an expansion in output this year, Chan said.

Malaysia’s second quarter GDP data, due today, are also expected to show an improvement, albeit milder.

"Southeast Asia’s bounce was first visible in industrial production. After reaching a bottom around January, production growth has rebounded in an almost perfect V shape. Fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have played a large part, but one big factor in some economies has been inventory restocking," Chan said.

He added that the scale of the inventory reduction among

Asean producers will boost growth in subsequent quarters, especially in Thailand, where inventories continued to fall in the second quarter.

"Yet the pace of improvement is already slowing. The upward trend in industrial production growth has moderated across all Asean economies. Producers have a clearer idea of final demand and are producing at a level that does not induce large changes in inventories," Chan said.

If this moderation continues, he said that it will suggest that the rebound in GDP growth in the second quarter is unlikely to be repeated in coming quarters.