BY AMADO P. MACASAET

Dark clouds hang over the economy. The future has never been as uncertain as they are now.

Why is this so?

Chief among the reasons, and this is practically true for all non-oil producing countries, is the soaring prices of crude blunted only occasionally as a question of market correction.

The major problem is the inability of the economy to create jobs for teeming millions who want to work. Millions of them are abroad working as chamber maids, masons, truck drivers, crane operators, laundry women and what have you.

A few of them are professionals who are mostly in the United States but they hardly send money home because they brought their families with them.

There are tell-tale signs that gainful employment will become more and more difficult to get. Manufacturers are not expanding operations. New projects are as hard to come by as a needle in a hay stack.

A visit to any of the big or medium size malls will reveal a danger that very few people recognize. The stalls are filled with imported goods.

The Filipino manufacturer cannot compete with the developed countries for many reasons. Chief among them is the reduction – in fact, almost elimination – of tariff walls done in the name of free trade desired by the World Trade Organization.

A low tariff naturally encourages heavier imports that in turn leave local manufacturers without a market in their own country.

The Philippines is slowly becoming a nation of traders although there a few entrepreneurs who dare produce other food products like health drinks that do not compete with imports

The financial sector is trembling. Because of low tariff rates, commercial borrowers are getting fewer and fewer. They choose to be traders where the risks are low, labor-problem free and requires only the opening of a letter of credit to be in the trading or distribution business.

The Bangko Sentral’s worry about inflation has forced it to raise interest rates. High interest cost in the face of lack of tariff protection will further discourage loan demand.

The most critical problem is food. More precisely, how to avert a food shortage. Plans to grow more grain have not gone beyond the drawing boards, if some plans have been drawn up at all. Proof is the DA cannot show us verdant fields planted to rice,.

What the National Food Authority shows us with regular cadence are shiploads of imported rice from Vietnam, Thailand and even India.

The neglect of agriculture is incredible. The country makes more dollars from coconut products only because there is a shortage, not become of bigger volume of exports.

One of the biggest deterrents to growth is the dying iron and steel industry. The country started with an integrated steel mill but it is now reduced to foundries and assemblers of final products.

There is very little value added to the products of iron and steel. Unabated smuggling and higher prices of scrap abroad are killing the industry. One big operation in Balayan, Batangas has already been foreclosed by a bank. It cannot compete with cheaper, imported and smuggled products.

The Comprehensive Land Reform Program cut up large tracts into sizes that are hardly economical. Hardly any foreign exchange is made.

The only glimmer of hope is in the service sector.

Tourism is thriving, although at a very slow clip.

Little attention is paid by government to the fact that the nautical highway that links the three major areas has facilitated easier interaction among people.

Restaurants owned and operated by Koreans and Japanese are sprouting. Their establishments create jobs.

These are the little things that help ease the pain of a sinking economy.

Unabated corruption discourages initiatives on the part of smaller entrepreneurs. They begin to feel the hopelessness of trying harder while they see thievery at the top.

The little hope left is the larger appropriation for capital expenditure and a small reduction in debt service.