December 14, 2017, 4:42 am
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.07286 UAE Dirham
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.01684 Euro
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.01486 Falkland Islands Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01487 British Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08926 Ghanaian Cedi
1 Philippine Peso = 0.93552 Gambian Dalasi
1 Philippine Peso = 178.63095 Guinea Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14558 Guatemala Quetzal
1 Philippine Peso = 4.02202 Guyana Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.1549 Hong Kong Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.46552 Honduras Lempira
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1 Philippine Peso = 5.29563 Hungarian Forint
1 Philippine Peso = 269.1865 Indonesian Rupiah
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07009 Israeli Shekel
1 Philippine Peso = 1.27806 Indian Rupee
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1 Philippine Peso = 21.5879 Korean Won
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1 Philippine Peso = 27.00397 Myanmar Kyat
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1 Philippine Peso = 2.0454 Nepalese Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02854 New Zealand Dollar
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1 Philippine Peso = 1 Philippine Peso
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1 Philippine Peso = 111.49603 Paraguayan Guarani
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.15376 Solomon Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26488 Seychelles Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13228 Sudanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.16689 Swedish Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02681 Singapore Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01487 St Helena Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.4406 Slovak Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 151.38888 Sierra Leone Leone
1 Philippine Peso = 11.05159 Somali Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 412.7976 Sao Tome Dobra
1 Philippine Peso = 0.17361 El Salvador Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 10.21786 Syrian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.26978 Swaziland Lilageni
1 Philippine Peso = 0.64663 Thai Baht
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.04555 Tongan paʻanga
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07593 Turkish Lira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.13154 Trinidad Tobago Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.59567 Taiwan Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 44.30555 Tanzanian Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.53914 Ukraine Hryvnia
1 Philippine Peso = 71.66666 Ugandan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01984 United States Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.57401 Uruguayan New Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 160.53571 Uzbekistan Sum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.19792 Venezuelan Bolivar
1 Philippine Peso = 450.57538 Vietnam Dong
1 Philippine Peso = 2.11786 Vanuatu Vatu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05142 Samoa Tala
1 Philippine Peso = 11.04186 CFA Franc (BEAC)
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1 Philippine Peso = 11.51528 CFA Franc (BCEAO)
1 Philippine Peso = 1.99881 Pacific Franc
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PH next to hike rates?

HONG KONG. --  Tighter monetary policy is coming to Asia next year. Yet it will lag the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes as Asian central banks balance an exports-led revival in growth with a slowdown in regional locomotive China.

That will mark a shift from a few months ago when most economists expected Asian policy makers to hold their ground or even ease further, but the trade windfall behind a synchronized uptick in global growth is seen lasting longer.

Last week South Korea took advantage of the trade boom to normalize policy, lifting rates for the first time in more than six years, and analysts expect Malaysia and Philippines -- where growth has also benefited from a surge in public investment - to hike in the first quarter.

With the benefit of hindsight when the Fed in 2013 signaled it was time to exit ultra-low rates and sparked a taper tantrum, regional central banks should be more confident of looking at the strength of their own economies rather than that of the United States.

“The last couple of years has shown us that monetary policy in this region can decouple from the US,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.

“Obviously they are cognizant of what the Fed does and capital flows ... (but) this is not a case of central banks being forced to act just because the Fed is looking to tighten further.”

That de-coupling has been on show in the past two years as Asia shrugged off four US rate hikes, and some countries even cut rates over that period.

South Korea was the first major Asian economy to lift rates since Indonesia’s November 2014 move, which was reversed three months later as markets eventually took the view that a US lift-off won’t necessarily derail global growth.

Of course, the Fed cannot be totally ignored as it is expected to hike again next week and two to three more times in 2018. Korea and Malaysia have some of the lowest real interest rates relative to the United States since the global financial crisis and were responsible for most of the net bond market outflows in Asia in October.

Australia and New Zealand could hike later next year, China might raise its short-term policy rates, while some analysts expect even India and Indonesia, which have been cutting recently, to reverse their moves.

China is emerging as a key driver of Asia’s policy track next year, with growth in the world’s second-biggest economy set to lose momentum as authorities there extend a year-long crackdown on financial risks.

The numbers show Asia is less dependent on American growth than in the past.

While emerging Asia’s trade with the United States has gone up by 40 percent since the global financial crisis, its trade with China has risen 120 percent, according to Reuters calculations based on IMF data. Emerging Asia now trades 70 percent more with China than it does with the United States.

That means monetary tightening in the region will lag the Fed, as long as any capital outflows driven by the narrower rate differentials do not lead to significantly weaker currencies. Stubbornly low inflation and elevated household debt may also slow rate hikes in some countries.

“We have a picture where the average Asian central bank hikes less than the US,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics.

“We can argue they can do that without putting pressure on their real economy or financial sector because first, in some countries like India or Indonesia rates start from a higher level than in the United States and they have a buffer and secondly, the dollar would not strengthen a lot.”

The good news is that during synchronized global growth the dollar historically tends to be stable or weaker, suggesting that Asian currencies will likely avoid a sharp shakeout.

Kuijs expects the 4-8 percent strengthening in Asian currencies this year to come to a halt in 2018, when some might weaken slightly, but by less than 4 percent. BofA Merrill Lynch sees most currencies flat in 2018.

The other element mitigating the risk of capital outflows is that while short-term bond yields are rising in the US and Asia in anticipation of higher rates, long-term yields have remained stable as markets are yet to be convinced of any global inflationary pressures.

While US two-year yields rose from 1.2 to 1.8 percent this year, 10-year yields dipped 6 basis points to 2.39 percent, still below South Korean yields.

“We’re pretty comfortable with the monetary policy outlook for Asia,” said Bryan Collins, portfolio manager, fixed income, at Fidelity International, who sees opportunities in long-dated Asian debt. – Reuters 
 
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