July 21, 2018, 2:11 pm
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1 Philippine Peso = 0.0687 UAE Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 2.01833 Albanian Lek
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03442 Neth Antilles Guilder
1 Philippine Peso = 0.51646 Argentine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02528 Australian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0333 Aruba Florin
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03741 Barbados Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.57108 Bangladesh Taka
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03151 Bulgarian Lev
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00707 Bahraini Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 32.75309 Burundi Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01871 Bermuda Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02527 Brunei Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12832 Bolivian Boliviano
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07203 Brazilian Real
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01871 Bahamian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 1.27899 Bhutan Ngultrum
1 Philippine Peso = 0.19255 Botswana Pula
1 Philippine Peso = 374.4856 Belarus Ruble
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03737 Belize Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02464 Canadian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01868 Swiss Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 12.20576 Chilean Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12563 Chinese Yuan
1 Philippine Peso = 53.5578 Colombian Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 10.55649 Costa Rica Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01871 Cuban Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 1.77142 Cape Verde Escudo
1 Philippine Peso = 0.41506 Czech Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 3.32024 Djibouti Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.11972 Danish Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 0.93303 Dominican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.19981 Algerian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25129 Estonian Kroon
1 Philippine Peso = 0.33389 Egyptian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.51106 Ethiopian Birr
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01606 Euro
1 Philippine Peso = 0.03917 Fiji Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01429 Falkland Islands Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01431 British Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08962 Ghanaian Cedi
1 Philippine Peso = 0.88982 Gambian Dalasi
1 Philippine Peso = 168.66816 Guinea Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14005 Guatemala Quetzal
1 Philippine Peso = 3.88103 Guyana Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.1468 Hong Kong Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.44747 Honduras Lempira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.1187 Croatian Kuna
1 Philippine Peso = 1.26057 Haiti Gourde
1 Philippine Peso = 5.20183 Hungarian Forint
1 Philippine Peso = 269.36027 Indonesian Rupiah
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06796 Israeli Shekel
1 Philippine Peso = 1.28159 Indian Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 22.25963 Iraqi Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 813.69248 Iran Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 1.99588 Iceland Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 2.43547 Jamaican Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01325 Jordanian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 2.11107 Japanese Yen
1 Philippine Peso = 1.8771 Kenyan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 1.27484 Kyrgyzstan Som
1 Philippine Peso = 75.70146 Cambodia Riel
1 Philippine Peso = 7.90311 Comoros Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 16.83502 North Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 21.15413 Korean Won
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00566 Kuwaiti Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01534 Cayman Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.4508 Kazakhstan Tenge
1 Philippine Peso = 157.22035 Lao Kip
1 Philippine Peso = 28.15189 Lebanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 2.98915 Sri Lanka Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 3.00412 Liberian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.24822 Lesotho Loti
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05703 Lithuanian Lita
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01161 Latvian Lat
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02573 Libyan Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.17723 Moroccan Dirham
1 Philippine Peso = 0.31076 Moldovan Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.98373 Macedonian Denar
1 Philippine Peso = 26.78638 Myanmar Kyat
1 Philippine Peso = 45.80995 Mongolian Tugrik
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15122 Macau Pataca
1 Philippine Peso = 6.64048 Mauritania Ougulya
1 Philippine Peso = 0.64347 Mauritius Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.29125 Maldives Rufiyaa
1 Philippine Peso = 13.40105 Malawi Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 0.35353 Mexican Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07589 Malaysian Ringgit
1 Philippine Peso = 0.24819 Namibian Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 6.7153 Nigerian Naira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.58586 Nicaragua Cordoba
1 Philippine Peso = 0.15284 Norwegian Krone
1 Philippine Peso = 2.04293 Nepalese Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02753 New Zealand Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.00719 Omani Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01871 Panama Balboa
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06114 Peruvian Nuevo Sol
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06073 Papua New Guinea Kina
1 Philippine Peso = 1 Philippine Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 2.39618 Pakistani Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0692 Polish Zloty
1 Philippine Peso = 106.97905 Paraguayan Guarani
1 Philippine Peso = 0.06809 Qatar Rial
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07472 Romanian New Leu
1 Philippine Peso = 1.18 Russian Rouble
1 Philippine Peso = 15.95267 Rwanda Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 0.07015 Saudi Arabian Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.14747 Solomon Islands Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.25122 Seychelles Rupee
1 Philippine Peso = 0.33483 Sudanese Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.16573 Swedish Krona
1 Philippine Peso = 0.02554 Singapore Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.0143 St Helena Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.41538 Slovak Koruna
1 Philippine Peso = 153.38571 Sierra Leone Leone
1 Philippine Peso = 10.68088 Somali Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 393.68313 Sao Tome Dobra
1 Philippine Peso = 0.16367 El Salvador Colon
1 Philippine Peso = 9.633 Syrian Pound
1 Philippine Peso = 0.24845 Swaziland Lilageni
1 Philippine Peso = 0.62252 Thai Baht
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04952 Tunisian Dinar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04351 Tongan paʻanga
1 Philippine Peso = 0.08966 Turkish Lira
1 Philippine Peso = 0.12587 Trinidad Tobago Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.57159 Taiwan Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 42.49906 Tanzanian Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.49158 Ukraine Hryvnia
1 Philippine Peso = 69.56977 Ugandan Shilling
1 Philippine Peso = 0.01871 United States Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 0.58277 Uruguayan New Peso
1 Philippine Peso = 145.09914 Uzbekistan Sum
1 Philippine Peso = 2239.05724 Venezuelan Bolivar
1 Philippine Peso = 431.12608 Vietnam Dong
1 Philippine Peso = 2.04265 Vanuatu Vatu
1 Philippine Peso = 0.04883 Samoa Tala
1 Philippine Peso = 10.52881 CFA Franc (BEAC)
1 Philippine Peso = 0.05051 East Caribbean Dollar
1 Philippine Peso = 10.52881 CFA Franc (BCEAO)
1 Philippine Peso = 1.90591 Pacific Franc
1 Philippine Peso = 4.67265 Yemen Riyal
1 Philippine Peso = 0.24818 South African Rand
1 Philippine Peso = 97.07258 Zambian Kwacha
1 Philippine Peso = 6.76955 Zimbabwe dollar

The Fed and the falling peso

The United States Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the equivalent of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ( BSP) Monetary Board where it is the primary regulatory authority for American banks and financial institutions. As both a bank regulator and the foremost economic policy making body in a free market economy it has perhaps the most influence in crafting US macroeconomic policies. 

The Fed meets regularly. In those meetings one of the most anticipated topics that the American public and the world at large anxiously await is the matter of interest rates. These are so termed policy rates because they not only have systemic impacts on the rates charged on debt as well as those paid on deposit liabilities but also because these are critical determinants of an economy’s currency.

While the value of a currency results from a number of other factors, one of the most important is the interest rates determined during those meetings.  There indeed are other determinants however. One is the volume of trade between the American economy and a trading partner such as the Philippines, including the balance of payments that result from that relationship, the debts incurred in the trade and others, each coming together to create values based on the bilateral exchange.

Another determinant is money supply, whether in cash or other forms, and whether these are kept inside bank vaults, in circulation, a combination of both or inclusive of other variants like checks, drafts, even novel forms that substitute as media of exchange.

And then there is the value of money based on that crusted law of economics every college sophomore knows by heart -- the law of supply and demand. Money after all is a commodity just like pork bellies and beans. It is tradable. It can be hoarded. And there are circumstances under which it is demanded more than at any other time.

Note how the law of supply and demand influences the value of the peso during an election year when money supply increases should the mint print out more and the resulting supply circulates to fund campaign materials, posters, even vote buying. Election periods witness a rise in inflation where the peso falls as its supply increases.

Most of these determinants are locally confined. This is not the case with the US dollar, the decisions of the Fed and the impact of both on our side of the Pacific.

Recently the Fed had met amid the highest spike in the American manufacturing index in the last 13 years. Never mind that most of those 13 years saw downshifted outputs, ironically during wars aggressively fought despite increasingly aging and depleted military hardware. Not only had the war machine practically jammed under the Obama administration but both jobs and remnant manufacturing migrated outside the Union. 

In contrast, in the few months since the Trump presidency took office inbound foreign direct investments (FDI) increased, manufacturing churned back on and domestic employment ramped up exponentially.

The foregoing helps us to understand what economic conditions underlie and preempt interest rate deliberations that found the dollar’s value.

In considering rate policies the Fed looks at several economic indices that indicate domestic capacities to absorb increased rates. Among the bellwether indices are productivity, employment and the manufacturing index. 

FDI flowing to the United States in the second quarter of 2017 under the Trump presidency had increased by as much as US$ 46,200 million -- double  the average FDI increase of US$ 23,860 million from 1994 to 2017.

For productivity, surpassing expectations, the US gross domestic productivity (GDP), expanded on an annualized basis by 3.1 percent
 its strongest since 2015.

As of the middle of the year the US unemployment rate had fallen to 4.1 percent the lowest in 10 to 16 sixteen years. Not only are jobs catalysts for the strengthening of the dollar but these reflect the financial resilience of the American worker in coping with increased debt costs following rate hikes.

Finally, as previously mentioned, the US manufacturing index  hit a 13-year high at 60.8. When these set of economic indices chorus, the music produced is a song of praise as investments flow in or return home as Americans troop back to work, and their jobs, specifically in the manufacturing sector, produce unprecedented growth.

These conditions compel the Fed to raise rates before the year ends regardless of further adjustments. A rate hike is a virtual certainty this December pushing the peso lower somewhere around $1: P52. Elliot Wave forecasters see it weakening further in the medium term.

These do not augur well for the Filipino public, courtesy of a rubber-stamp congress, likely to be hit hard by higher excise and value-added taxes in 2018 as a stronger dollar weakens an already fallen peso and aggregate prices rise, while investment capital flies to the US where higher interest rates yield higher returns.
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