PARIS - As recession extends its tentacles
across the globe, it is getting hard just to track the hundreds
of billions of dollars governments are throwing or promising to
throw at the problem.
With unemployment surging and the car
industry screaming for survival aid, governments in Washington,
Beijing, Tokyo and the bulk of Europe appear to agree one thing
— that urgent fiscal stimulus is needed to support demand and
limit the damage.
What is striking is that Germany, Europe’s
largest economy, appears unconvinced so far, or is at least
reluctant to follow the rest of the pack into a spending splurge
after years devoted to bringing the country’s public finances
back into balance.
However, the fact that the European Central
Bank is expected to cut interest rates heavily again on
Thursday, as is the Bank of England, demonstrates the
seriousness of the deterioration in the economic climate.
But with much of the industrialized world now
in or sliding into recession, economists believe it is time to
deploy the fiscal guns alongside the monetary weaponry, and not
just in the slower-growing industrialized world.
"It is clear that significant fiscal stimulus
is needed both in the OECD countries and in emerging markets,"
said Torsten Slok, New York based economist for Deutsche Bank.
China has announced a stimulus package worth
4 trillion yuan, or roughly $586 billion. And Tokyo plans a
stimulus worth 5 trillion yen ($53 billion), though it plans
only to submit the extra budget to parliament in the new year.
Washington has spent or committed trillions
of dollars and is expected to come up with another big package —
some economists believe it may be worth upwards of $400 billion
— as soon as President-elect Barack Obama takes over in January.
And the European Commission has proposed that
the 27-country European Union come up with an EU-wide package
worth 200 billion euros, or 1.5 percent of EU gross domestic
product.
While economists believe the announced plans
mix new and old money in some cases, Germany’s reticence is a
more vexing question and one which casts a shadow on the EU-wide
package to be discussed by finance ministers this week and which
will be put to EU leaders for approval mid-December.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she does
not want to get into a "race for billions", which is worrying
some other governments in Europe, according to officials in
other capitals. And it is troubling economists too.
"Germany’s reluctance to pull its weight in
fighting the global recession betrays lack of vision, lack of
leadership, and a temptation to free-ride that, if widely
mimicked, would truly condemn the world economy to a new great
depression," says Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit
bank.
Jim O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman
Sachs, notes that domestic consumption in export-dependent
Germany has barely budged in what will soon be 20 years since
the fall of the Berlin Wall. And that is something that should
change.
Europe’s largest economy should do itself and
the rest of the world a favor by raising wages, reducing sales
tax, and thereby supporting higher levels of consumption,
O’Neill argued in an article in the London Financial Times.–
Reuters