o many times,
critics and al-lies alike of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo have appeared ready to trot
out her political obituary, and each and every time she has proven them wrong.
Once again, with all the drama at the House of
Representatives and now with the early-morning revelations of a weary Jun Lozada,
people are beginning to wonder whether we have reached that stage in a drama
called the denouement.
Denouement, a final part in which everything is made clear
and no questions or surprises remain.
Sometimes I wonder why I am never at the scene of the
excitement when things happen. So many times I would be abroad, or at least out
of town, when political bombshells are exploded, troop movements are reported
governments fall. I remember being in Davao - at the Marco Polo Hotel actually -
at the height of the siege of Malacañang which has come to be called "Edsa 3".
Tuned in to ANC all I could do was listen to former Erap spokesman Jesus Crispin
Remulla (now Representative Remulla of Cavite) explain why the actuations of the
newly installed Arroyo government made the "uprising" inevitable.
On another occasion I was in Atlanta, Georgia, when the
standoff at the Marines headquarters occurred two years ago, around the time
that we were supposed to be marking another anniversary of the first Edsa. That
time I could only gather information through texts, expensive phone calls back
to Manila, as well as spotty reporting by CNN as well as by the BBC.
Again when Danny Lim and Antonio Trillanes decided to "check
into" the Peninsula Hotel, I was on the road in Hong Kong on the way to the
Macau Ferry Terminal. Again it took texts and calls to Manila for me to find out
what was happening.
Yesterday I was in the airport checking in for a flight when
texts started coming in about Lozada being on ANC. And then, as the day wore on,
more texts calling for people to come and show moral support somehow - and again
I was too far away to do anything but read online news, watch the CNN and BBC
for coverage, and just wait and wonder.
Wonder again whether this is "it".
This may not be "it" - President Arroyo may indeed prove
every critic wrong and hold on until the last day of her term in 2010 - but I
cannot escape the feeling that every additional political bombshell - small, as
in the case of ousted Speaker Jose de Venecia, or potentially big, as in the
case of the much-awaited testimony today of Jun Lozada - that each of these only
serve to add up to ensure that any attempt to provide the President the
opportunity to stay in power longer than 2010 will result in considerable, if
not in fact massive public opposition.
This is what I call the period of "tolerance". The quietude
should not be misinterpreted by anyone - most specially by the people closest to
the President - as indication that she has the public's support behind her.
This may also not be "it" - but the way Malacañang handles
this most recent crisis situation can change the dynamics of the situation
greatly. And frankly it has not been doing a good job so far.
I was watching the TV coverage of the press conference called
by Secretaries Ignacio Bunye and Lito Atienza, together with PNP chief Avelino
Razon, and I was amazed at the "withering fire" they had to take from members of
the Malacañang Press Corps. This may be an unfair statement, but I have never
considered the Malacañang Press Corps a very combative one, for the simple
reason that incurring the ire of a big shot in the Palace could very well mean
your being taken out of the Palace beat. And to many, being given the Palace
beat is a plum assignment, hopefully not because of the "biyayas" that being
close to the powers-that-be can mean for a reporter.
But this time around the press corps was quite pushy, not
accepting at face value the initial responses that the three gentlemen would
give them. Each of the three tried to do his darnest best in handling the
"explosive" questions posed them (such as "So who is lying, Mr. Lozada or
Malacañang?") but it was clear that the three gentlemen were on a very hot bench
and their tense smiles were a dead giveaway.
It will come down to this, actually: a battle of spin between
the Palace and the rest of the world. I did not say the Senate nor did I refer
to the political opposition - because actually what the Palace has been battling
since Lozada arrived and was supposedly whisked away by the PNP has been media
itself as it tried to report the unfolding events as best it could. And when it
is media in general that you begin to accuse of bias, or of misrepresenting the
facts, or of distorting the true picture, then in my book you've already lost
half of the battle.
So is this "it"? Will the Lozada testimony today before the
Senate be the missing "smoking gun" that could topple the Arroyo administration?
Perhaps not. But I do believe that the period of denouement is what we are
entering in this long-drawn out soap opera that is Philippine politics of the
GMA era.