n "extraordinary
project for linking Europe with the New World by means of two gigantic submarine
tubes?" [Jules Verne, "An Express of the Future," The Strand Magazine, November
1895]
A homogenized planet where "a Chinese citizen in an
Americanized world-state" speaks "in worn and polluted English" to his Sudanese
wife? [Olaf Stapledon, Last Men in London, 1932]
The Yellow Peril?
"It is sufficiently known, but not, perhaps, generally noted
in our country, that many military men abroad, familiar with Eastern conditions
and character, look with apprehension toward the day when the vast mass of China
– now inert – may yield to one of those impulses which have in past ages buried
civilization under a wave of barbaric invasion. The great armies of Europe,
whose existence is so frequently deplored, may be providentially intended as a
barrier to that great movement, if it come. Certainly, while China remains as
she is, nothing more disastrous for the future of the world can be imagined than
that general disarmament of Europe which is the Utopian dream of some
philanthropists." [A.T. Mahan, "Hawaii and Our Future Sea Power," New York
Times, January 31, 1893]
How about the elimination of animals deemed to be pests?
"The rabbits in Australia, and the far more objectionable
poisonous snakes in South America and India, have been exterminated by the
capture of a few dozen of the creatures in the infested districts, their
inoculation with the virus similar to the murus tiphi, tuberculosis or any other
contagious-germ complaint to which the species treated was particularly
susceptible, and the release of these individuals when the disease was seen to
be taking hold. The rabbits and serpents released at once returned to their old
haunts, carrying the plague far and wide. The unfortunate rabbits were greatly
commiserated even by the medicos that wielded the death-dealing syringe; but,
fortunately for themselves, they died easily. The reptiles, perhaps on account
of the wider distribution of the nerve centers, had more lingering but not
painful deaths, often, while in articulo mortis, leaving the holes with which
they seemed to connect their discomfort, and making a final struggle along the
ground, only to die more quickly as a result of their exertions. We have applied
this also to the potato-bug, locust, and other insect pests, no victim being too
small for the ubiquitous, subtle germ, which, properly cultivated and utilized,
has become one of man’s best friends." [J. J. Astor, A Journey in Other Worlds:
A Romance of the Future, 1894]
Or an idealized world, such as follows:
"Skip forward 200 years into the Utopian future, and the
scene is totally different...In that age when there is no manual labor and
everyone is ‘educated’, it is hardly likely that Father will still be a rough
man with enlarged hands who likes to sit in shirt-sleeves. And there won’t be a
coal fire in the grate, only some kind of invisible heater. The furniture will
be made of rubber, glass, and steel. If there are still such things as evening
papers there will certainly be no racing news in them, for gambling will be
meaningless in a world where there is no poverty and the horse will have
vanished from the face of the earth. Dogs, too, will have been suppressed on
grounds of hygiene. And there won’t be so many children, either, if the
birth-controllers have their way." [George Orwell, "North and South." From "The
Road to Wigan Pier," 1937]
These five scenarios of the future were written in our past.
They do not exist in our present.
Were they even feasible? The first example, that of
connecting Boston (United States of America) and Liverpool (Great Britain) via
pneumatic tubes, may be technologically imaginable, but is it economically
desirable?
The second citation is already taking place. Homogenization
is occurring through globalization, with the U.S. as the sole superpower, the
Chinese being the most numerous, more racial intermarriages, and English as
planetary lingua franca.
In so far as the third scenario is concerned, the so-called
China Threat is a current theme in American politics and pop culture, especially
with the primaries of the political parties and the issue of toxic Chinese toys.
The fourth passage does not seem to be in the works. Germ
warfare against unwanted insects, reptiles and mammals might tip the ecological
balance into the abyss. In any case, SARS and avian flu show that it is the
animals that are having a field day at the expense of the humans. Or mutually
assured destruction.
The fifth example has a tongue-in-cheek quality.
Nevertheless, the nuggets of social commentary are still worth excavating.
Three of the scenarios are sourced from the literature of
science fiction that have become classics, while the other two come from
socio-political essays. Yet all five share the intent of painting better worlds.
Betterment that springs from technological upgrades and moral certainties.
There are many other "worlds of if" and some are dystopias.
Jose Rizal, for instance, in his multi-part "Philippines A Century Hence" essay
for La Solidaridad, warned of a bloody racial war unless the Spaniards grant
their Filipino wards the essential reforms of liberalism to convert their
Asia-Pacific colony into a legitimate province of Spain and outpost of Western
civilization.
To forestall, if not prevent, Armageddon, the liberal
democracies and the advanced capitalist states have learned to practice the
first habit of highly-effective people: be pro-active.
Part of this package is conflict management and Pax Americana
that simultaneously promotes defense contracts and police operations. The
strategy includes balancing the use of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons
with unconventional war tools. The Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Directorate
prioritizes the development of rubber projectiles for crowd dispersal, acoustic
bioeffects to deny access to an area, high-power microwave devices to disable
vehicles, the Canister-Launched Area Denial System with payloads of concertina
wire, bounding nets and malodorous substances, fast-curing foams to seal doors,
the Vortex Ring Gun, and dyes and kinetic impact rounds as underbarrel tactical
payloads of the standard M16 rifle. [John B. Alexander. Future War: Non-Lethal
Weapons in Twenty-First-Century Warfare. New York: Thomas Dunne Books, 1999]
Whatever their state, the people of the present have to deal with change and
struggle for a brighter tomorrow.