Too late
the summit

Probably because the idea of change is anathema to the present mis-government of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, they would rather dwell on the price of oil. "It’s the economy, I tell you." That’s her mantra, always and ever, remaining "focused" on the economy, which she wants us to believe is her strong suit, even if everyone else other than her toadies are wondering what in the economy other than statistics they can thank for.

So she calls for a "summit on energy." Unless a fresh war in the Middle East happens, or Hugo Chavez declares war against "imperial" America, both of which are not in the realm of reasonable probability this year, the price of oil will start descending to "normal" levels by February, just as the globe starts warming up once more. The damage wrought upon our lives by high oil prices should be over by the middle of February, and there’s little this government can do between now and then to mitigate its effects. Now if they’re going to remove the VAT on oil, that’s something else, but you seriously think Arroyo and Teves will do that?

It is a summit too late. It should have been called six months ago or even earlier. Economists are supposed to be adept at the science of forecasting, and preparing plans according to a timeline based on forecasts. When the problem is over the hump, that’s when this "good economist" calls for a conference to discuss to death what ought to be done. Unless of course this "good economist" wants to check whether her "pupil" on energy, Angelo Reyes, has completed his learning curve. Why, in the professional world of business, Angelo would have been retired from all chores a year ago, or in a sane government, he would have been at best mothballed into an ambassador for an African or South American dictatorship, but secretary of energy? Ask Senadora Miriam.

Now if the summit will be called to discuss how profitable Transco was sold to dummies of this administration, that’s something else. But then again, maybe it is better if the Senate does that instead. If the summit will be called to discuss the sale of PNOC-EDC, the Senate has started.

***

What should worry this administration is food. The price of grain, whether rice or corn or wheat, has gone stratospheric, and rich nations which have a stockpile of cash have already bought tomorrow’s produce yesterday. China has cornered the supply of grains to make sure nobody in China goes hungry, not even their pigs, the manufactured products of which they sell to the whole wide world, including the lowest of the line, Ma Ling in circular tins with orange labels, which somehow Filipinos have taken a craving to.

Grains production has been down due to a combination of factors – from climate change to soil deteriorated by excessive use of chemical fertilizers, to the craze over bio-fuels, precipitated in turn by high crude oil prices and the scare brought about by Al Gore’s jeremiads of doom, inconvenient truths though they are.

If Vietnamese or Thai or even Indian rice were readily available for importation in previous years, they are now in short supply. Unless the NFA is willing to pay over the roof. Local palay production cannot cope with the demand, and that is a major headache. Luckily it is a seasonal crop, so what the government quickly does in the next two months may still impact positively come May or November. Local corn production is low, and that means higher pig and chicken feed costs. Which translate into higher prices for chicken and pork, never mind beef, which we hardly produce anyway, and which only the rich can afford. The immediate headache has to do with pan de sal, which at 2 pesos fifty is all air. What if it becomes 3 pesos, still all air? Of course, and higher in price at that.

Milk supplies are also going to be a problem. And because those who can’t afford Vicky Belo to keep their breasts from sagging, refuse to feed their babies the natural way, the demand for imported milk keeps going up, up and away. World production cannot cope with world demand. Are we going to have a "Cheap Milk" bill to pass the way we are trying to pass a "Cheap Medicines" bill? The enemy will be the same—the large pharmaceutical companies, which means the debate will take forever. It’s too late to expect then Senator, now ex-President Erap’s Carabao Law to produce enough lactation, because we didn’t mind it then, and only Erap and that Munoz, Nueva Ecija dairy center mind it now.

A summit on food and grains? That may not be necessary, because it looks like one of the Boss Woman’s bright pupils, Art Yap who is at the helm of agriculture, knows what to do. But knowing what to do and doing it are miles apart in this benighted land. It is a function of the right amount of resources put to good use in the right way, and Yap may have to contend with the pressures coming from congressmen and local officials put together, not to mention someone who gets "borracho" with rice importation, even if the doctor prescribes a low-carb, low-sodium, low-cholesterol diet.

***

Back to the real world. Back to the salt mines. With externalities threatening to discombobulate the Boss Woman’s showcase of "good economics and bad politics," we start the year wrong by imbibing the narcotic of politics far too early.

Just because a broadsheet finds the New Year period "ho-hum" for banner events, it gets everyone and his mother so heated up on a no-brainer, which is an Erap re-run. Mercifully, the same broadsheet printed a "last word" on its own initiated ado over nothing last Saturday, after getting dolts and has-beens "jumping like chimpanzees" (Joker Arroyo’s most erudite statement) over the prospects of paksiw na lechon, which depending on which side of the political fence you’re at, can appeal or repel. Lechon is Erap’s favorite dish, specifically the Cebuano version, which is why he has had to travel there last week. Cebu lechon can never be as good in Manila, even if transported by private plane, as when you ingest it crackling from Rico’s charcoal pit. And paksiw na lechon is what an Erap re-run would be, but even execrable Mang Tomas knows his Constitution well enough to know what Manong Ernie Maceda and Rufus Rodriguez feign otherwise. No wonder Alan Paguia did not chime in. Though close to the former president, Alan does not adulterate his legal knowledge with the toxicity of partisan politics. In any case, thank God, Fr. Joaquin Bernas gave his non-pupils a lesson early in 2008 that the Supreme Court cannot until 2010. The Constitution bars Erap or FVR from running for the same office again, and Bernas says even the debates and the voting in Cory’s constitutional commission clearly reflect this.

So who will be in the starting line come January 31, 2010? Loren, Noli, Ping and Chiz bunched up, Manny and Mar struggling to get to double digit, Dick, BF, Sonny B of QC at the low, low end? (So far the 2007 polls have included only these names, and I have ranked these according to the average standing in the past three surveys I have seen.) Noli, Ping, Manny, Dick and BF will be about the same age by then, 60 to 65, about the same age bracket of FVR and Erap when they were elected. Mar will be a few years younger than they; Sonny much older; while Loren will have by then joined the golden girls society. Only Chiz would be in the raw age of 40 when the campaign begins. Dagdag pa? There’s Jojo B of Makati, Jinggoy, Gilbert Teodoro, why not Mikey Arroyo too? And nunca te olvidare, Senadora Miriam, porque no? If she doesn’t get into the International Court of Justice in Den Haag, she could be the Boss Woman’s next Senate President, and who knows what after that, ne c’est pas?

And don’t think that balderdash about a United Opposition shall come to pass. The LP and NP are off to kingdom come, and not even an Erap could prevail on them. Why Erap even considers their leaders "opposition" is part of the mysteries of our hopelessly "baligtarin" political non-system. They are bent on re-establishing the bad old days when these parties took turns at power, sometimes stealing presidential candidates from the other. Already they are wooing everyone regardless of present political loyalty, yet they call themselves principled.

So how many will be in the race by January 31, 2010? At least five, likely six, perhaps even eight. And we will elect a president with about the same percentage of the vote as FVR had in 1992. Well, FVR wasn’t a bad president, never mind if he got only 23 percent of the vote to Miriam’s 21 %, Danding’s 18 % and the late Monching Mitra’s 14 %. FVR mended the political fences thereafter, except for Miriam’s, including the grant of amnesty to rebels like Honasan, et al. He stayed the course, kept the ship of state on even keel. He was neither born rich nor married himself to wealth. He had the discipline of the military. He had the self-abnegating ways of the middle class. We are after all what we were. As far as we have seen, the kind of character that eventually constitutes a president’s moral fiber, work ethic and intellectual sensitivity, are built through years of upbringing and personal experiences. It has always been difficult for the patricians to transcend their class origins, nor for those spoiled by wealth or superstar status to disengage from proclivities that have become habit.

The next leader of this nation, after an entire generation of wasted opportunity, must lead by sterling, if at times spartan example. Otherwise, it will be just more of the same, and the nation, again at political crossroads, will be doomed by the inexorable march of a global environment from which it shall not be a player, its people mere slaves.

But then again, will there be elections the way we know it?