In many respects, New Hampshire is a "must" win for Clinton, the former first lady now senator from New York. Long touted as the "inevitable" nominee of her party, her loss to both Obama and Edwards in the Iowa caucuses last week not only shattered that air of inevitability but also psychologically boosted Obama’s campaign at her expense.

It remains a long political season, though; and while another defeat in New Hampshire will surely strip her of the "inevitable" tag, Hillary’s support among the party’s establishment at this point ensures that it will be a long drawn-out fight for the Democratic Party’s nomination.

But of what interest to us is the nominating process in the Democratic Party? I can imagine that except for the most hard-nosed political types among us, an election campaign in another country, even if it is the United States, is only of passing interest. All the more at the early stage that the season is in. But I personally find interest in the possibility that in the United States one of two major political parties may end up nominating as its presidential candidate a fresh face, a political neophyte (at least on the national and international stage) and a representative of an ethnic minority at that!

Talk about breaking the usual mold!

Translated in the Philippine context, the Obama candidacy that is made viable due to an apparent desire of a significant segment of the US voting public for something new and something anti-establishment raises the question whether, in the next presidential elections here, a similar constituency could be put together and harnessed for the victory of an Obama-like candidate.

If our avowed presidentiables believe that an Obama insurgency is possible in the Philippines, then this early they should begin to recraft their image so that they can appeal to those among our voters who seek change, who seek to be different, who seek to shake up the establishment through the ballot box.

In a sense, a rehash of the Miriam Santiago candidacy of 1992 that rode on the youth and student voters and almost carried her all the way to Malacañang.

Appealing to the youth vote will be easier said than done for some of the presidentiables. For the administration candidate, for example, invoking the image of an insurgency candidacy is almost always sure to result in a disjointed image. How can the candidate of the status quo be at the same time the candidate for real change?

Will this therefore put Noli de Castro, Bayani Fernando, Richard Gordon, or Gilbert Teodoro on the defensive?

It will also be easier for the more youthful among the candidates to validly claim that they feel the pulse of the younger generation, in contrast to a similar claim of candidates from a generation earlier. This means that the likes of Gilbert Teodoro, Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda will have a leg up over Manny Villar, Noli de Castro, Bayani Fernando and Richard Gordon.

Projecting one’s self as a candidate of the less fortunate will be tougher for those perceived to have been born with a silver spoon in their mouth and easier for the self-made. This means points against Mar Roxas and Gilbert Teodoro, and points mostly in favor of Villar (Sipag at Tiyaga).

And then there is the money issue. Idealism aside, the candidate who can match the administration peso for peso has the best chance of winning. Will that be Manny Villar and his P6 billion war chest? Or Mar Roxas or Gilbert Teodoro and their family fortunes?

I suppose just as it is too early to count Hillary out and Barack in, all this talk of 2010 is a bit premature only because Philippine politics is so fluid that alliances are made and unmade every day and nothing is seemingly ever final, not even the count.