We got from several sources that a group is planning to do a "Benazir Bhutto" on him.

As we all know, former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated while addressing a rally in the city of Rawalpindi last Dec. 27. Bhutto was challenging the beleaguered leadership of President Pervez Musharraf.

Our sources said although it cannot be ruled out that groups who are out to sabotage the Arroyo administration may just be thinking of assassinating Estrada as a trigger to create chaos, the people who he said are seriously thinking of it belong to a group identified with the administration.

Since his release from six years of confinement after he was granted absolute pardon by Arroyo, Estrada has been going around depressed areas mobbed by devoted supporters. He has floated the idea of running for president in 2010.

The source said the group targeting Estrada expects disarray to follow any attempt on the life of the former president which would be the perfect excuse to declare a state of emergency or martial law. "They want things to come to a head so they can finish off Trillanes and his Magdalo group and other anti-administration groups in the military," the source said.

The source said Arroyo and her security officials know that although in the Nov. 29 standoff at the Manila Pen Trillanes and Brig. Gen. Danny Lim did not get open support from other members of the armed forces, they suspect that there were sympathizers who were waiting for the right timing to come out.

The Center for People Empowerment in Governance, made this observation of the Nov. 29 incident: "Assuming that the main objective of the Makati siege was to create a political noise that would resonate throughout the country and outside, its leaders succeeded. If it was meant to trigger yet another people power revolt against the Arroyo rule, it failed. Just the same, it left a message – of a regime that is despicable, and of an increasing number of people poised to challenge it no matter the risk to their lives."

The source said: "They want to flush out those they feel are not on their side." The timetable for it is "first quarter of this year." Another first quarter storm?

In our political history, January and February are dangerous months. Ferdinand Marcos fell from power, which he held for more than two decades, on February 24, 1986. Joseph Estrada was ousted from the presidency on January 21, 2001, three years and four months short of his elected tenure of office.

Two years ago, Gloria Arroyo issued Proclamation 1017 to save her presidency, raided the Tribune and arrested a number of military officials and civilian critics to quell the restiveness that followed the exposé of the Hello Garci tapes that revealed her lead role in tampering the results of the 2004 elections in her favor.

The past few days, without giving specifics, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, AFP chief Hermogenes Esperon and PNP chief Avelino Razon warned of another destabilization activity.

Estrada better be very careful.