ose Rizal’s "The
Philippines a Century Hence" may be the best-known scenario paper about the
Philippines that was written by a Filipino. In this long essay, which was
carried in installments by the ilustrados’ democratic magazine (La Solidaridad),
Rizal named the countries that would possibly colonize or invade the Philippines
after the Filipinos would have won their independence in a bloody national war
against the imperialist Spanish occupiers.
In Rizal’s list, the United States of America stood out as
the most probable aggressor. Rizal was proven correct. McKinley’s America did
invade the "Pearl of the Orient" and dismantled the Malolos-based Philippine
Republic. The American Occupation cost one million Filipino souls.
Rizal’s prediction was published in 1889-1890; the US war of
aggression occurred in 1899.
Rizal’s forecast came true a second time with another
aggressor on his list. Hirohito’s Japan also invaded the Philippines in 1941 and
occupied it until 1945. Rizal’s hundred-year coverage hit the mark again in 52
years.
Who would have benefited from Rizal’s foretelling? Don Emilio
Aguinaldo was president of the Malolos Republic, and he failed to stop the
American sneak attack in Manila in February 1899. Worse, he allowed himself to
be captured a day after his birthday in 1901 by a special unit of the enemy
army. Manuel Luis Quezon was president of the Philippine Commonwealth, and,
unlike the hapless Aguinaldo, he was alert to the likelihood of a Japanese
invasion.
Quezon knew that war was coming soon. In his autobiography,
he related, "For several months, I had been almost certain that war with Japan
was inevitable in view of the positive stand taken by the United States
vis-a-vis the so-called ‘China Incident’ and the announced Greater East Asia
policy of Japan." ["The Good Fight." New York: D. Appleton-Century Company,
Inc., 1946, p. 183]
Quezon was a competent chief executive and he prepared his
people for the coming conflagration as best as he could. Alas, the Filipino
leader’s efforts were stymied by the lackadaisical policies and management of
the Americans who sat as the colonial masters of the Philippine Islands.
The Americans did not lack scenarios of coming conflicts with
the Mikado’s minions. As early as 1907, the Joint Army and Navy Board of the
United States began drawing up contingency plans for a war against Japan. A year
later, Homer Lea published "The Valor of Ignorance," arguing that a state of war
already existed between the US and Japan.
In 1914, one American, an indefatigable writer of novels and
short stories, published his own outline of a fictional future war. Jack London,
better known as the author of "White Fang" (1906) and "The Call of the Wild"
(1903), wrote "The Unparalleled Invasion" wherein he correctly extrapolated the
trajectory of Japanese aggression in Asia. To wit:
"Having decisively thrashed the great Russian Empire, Japan
promptly set about dreaming a colossal dream of empire for herself. Korea she
had made into a granary and a colony; treaty privileges and vulpine diplomacy
gave her the monopoly of Manchuria. But Japan was not satisfied. She turned her
eyes upon China. There lay a vast territory, and in that territory were the
hugest deposits in the world of iron and coal - the backbone of industrial
civilization."
The Russo-Japanese War was won by the latter ten years before
Jack London’s story. Tokyo’s formal annexation of Korea was in 1910, and back in
1895, Imperial Japan had taken Formosa, the Penghu Islands, and the Liaodong
Peninsula from the Qing Dynasty of China.
In World War I, Japan seized German holdings in East Asia,
including the Chinese territory of Kiaochow. And with its infamous "Twenty-One
Demands," Tokyo forced the Chinese acceptance of extended Japanese influence in
China.
World War I ended 1918, the same year when Tokyo’s Imperial
Defense Policy designated the US as the potential enemy number one of Japan.
Jack London’s sci-fi tale came out in the same year that
World War I erupted. But Japan’s invasion of North China took place 17 years
later when the Kwantung Army, under Japanese Lt. Gen. Honjo Shigeru, seized
Shenyang and Mukden, Manchuria on September 18, 1931. And on July 7, 1937,
Hirohito’s Japan used the "Marco Polo Bridge Incident" in Beijing to launch its
wholesale invasion of China.
In the real world, Hirohito’s hordes would rampage across
Asia-Pacific during World War Two. But in Jack London’s scenario, the
Sino-Japanese War "occurred in 1922, and in seven bloody months Manchuria,
Korea, and Formosa were taken away from her (Japan) and she was hurled back,
bankrupt, to stifle in her tiny, crowded islands. Exit Japan from the world
drama."
It was China that became the real danger to the world, not
because of a large standing army, but due to the "fecundity of her loins." With
her hundreds of millions, this China overran Southeast Asia in 1970-75, wresting
Indo-China from France, Burma and the Malay Peninsula from Britain, and the
Kingdom of Siam.
How did it happen? "The process was simple. First came the
Chinese immigration (or, rather, it was already there, having come there slowly
and insidiously during the previous years). Next came the clash of arms and the
brushing away of all opposition by a monster army of militia-soldiers, followed
by their families and household baggage. And finally came their settling down as
colonists in the conquered territory. Never was there so strange and effective a
method of world conquest."
In Jack London’s world, "there were two Chinese for every
white-skinned human...There was no combating China’s amazing birth rate." What
happened next?
Incidentally, in Rizal’s "The Philippines A Century Hence," China was also a
potential colonizer.