As the noose tightens…

ABU Sayyaf Group (ASG) terrorist fighters in Sulu Province are feeling the heat as never before, reports the military. And the world is watching.

The army continues its unrelenting pursuit. Local villagers cooperate with military commanders by identifying likely ASG leaders and fighters. Military commanders publicly emphasize that their pursuit of the terrorists is "intelligence driven." They want the enemy to know how the noose is tightening.

These facts are emerging from the stepped-up reporting throughout Sulu, as Philippine and international news services increasingly pay attention to the real war going on there. Australia, Great Britain, Canada and the United States transmit stories every day. China’s news services relay reports of remote Jolo to countless millions of readers and viewers.

ASG leaders and their so-called guests of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) would welcome this kind of publicity – if only they were winning. But they are not and they know it. As the world watches, their desperation has become so apparent that no one can miss it. The Sulu villagers and townspeople are especially aware of their desperation. Sulu’s young men are increasingly wary of ASG’s siren calls to join up and fight for Islam. They see the desperation – and futility – in the kidnappings and grisly murders that have become ASG’s trademark. Fathers and mothers of these young men now seek out the authorities to help them find the enemy. Another ASG fighter was killed in a firefight only a few weeks ago – the result of a local resident’s tip.

Terrorism analysts marvel at the apparent death wish inherent in ASG’s hospitality to JI fugitives Dulmatin and Umar Patek. Every police force on the planet lists these two militants in its most-wanted columns. Dulmatin carries a US$10 million price tag on his head, dead or alive.

Who is this man with only one name? Dulmatin is a bomb-making expert who learned his trade in Osama bin Laden’s Afghanistan training camps. He orchestrated the October 2002 bombings of the Bali nightclubs and killed more than 200 innocent people. He fled to the Philippines as the Indonesian police were about to arrest him.

Why, then, wonder the experts, would ASG leaders Radulan Sahiron and Albader Parad want such a guest in their midst? Reportedly, he has been in the Philippines for several years, also teaching bomb making to Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) fighters. But how long does it take to teach others to build bombs? Why is Dulmatin still in Sulu? Probably, analysts believe, because he has no place else to go.

Philippine troops captured Dulmatin’s wife and children in Jolo last year, and the authorities returned them to Indonesia. Without his family, Dulmatin is more mobile. But he is also more vulnerable because the locals, who are becoming aware of his presence, are less reluctant to inform the authorities of his whereabouts. His wife and children are no longer in danger.

Analysts point out that Dulmatin received help in the past from some of the local residents. They believed, perhaps because his family was with him, that hiding Dulmatin was the right thing to do. This might have been a bad decision for Dulmatin’s would-be protectors. After he has been captured or killed – as surely will happen – authorities may have some tough questions to ask these people.

Even as the noose tightens, Dulmatin and his JI companions apparently prefer to wait it out, hoping for some kind of miracle to save them. Their symbiosis with the ASG leadership in Sulu is all the more remarkable, some counter-terror analysts say, because their mutual dislike is well-known. The JI leaders consider themselves far superior to the ASG bandits and thugs, thinking of them as men without moral substance, lacking true Jihad credentials and fighting experience.

Recent military reporting shows just how the noose has tightened. If ASG and JI fighters are not sure of what they are up against, they need only to read the newspapers. The armed forces have deployed three brigades in Sulu: the 104th Army, 2nd Marine and Joint Special Operations Group. Aerial surveillance helps significantly; a naval blockade prevents escape by sea.

The total military commitment is enormous. The armed forces have demonstrated a willingness to accept some casualties and to stay the course. And their tactics are sound: Let good intelligence determine when, where and how to strike; keep casualties to an absolute minimum. Be quiet and patient; let the terrorists know they can trust no one and are never safe from lethal detection.

Against this vastly superior military force, the terrorists have no chance. Sooner or later they will be killed or captured. They have not as yet shown a willingness to include suicide attacks as part of their modus operandi and probably will not. Unless they surrender, most likely they will be killed.

Common sense urges Muslims in the South, those who have any remaining influence with the terrorist leaders, to do what they can to persuade these men to give it up, to seek a life-saving surrender. Unlikely, yes, but if it should happen, a watching world would be grateful. – MENARDO WENCESLAO, mewenceslao@yahoo.com