With the global population at nearly 6.6 billion at that time, the cataclysm would kill more than one of ten human beings. At this rate there would not be a single person in the world who was not either related or known to someone who had died from bird flu.

The ensuing world-wide flurry of activities stimulating countries into preparing for a possible international disaster was inevitable. All agencies were mobilized, money was raised, budgets were prepared, and activities were started to ensure that outbreaks were immediately identified and contained wherever the virus was found. A global network of laboratory facilities to detect the dreaded virus was quickly set up.

Today, it is known that the virus (H5N2 strain) has affected birds (domesticated and wild) in dozens of countries in most continents. Governments in these countries have reacted vigorously with mass culling of affected bird stocks. Humans known to have contact with infected birds have been placed under surveillance and educated about signs and symptoms of the human form of the disease.

With only a total of 349 human cases (more than two thirds of them in Indonesia and Vietnam) thus far confirmed by WHO since 2004, the feared worst case scenario of a pandemic has not occurred. The high fatality rate (216 deaths world-wide) is still worrisome but the fact is that the anticipated mutation to a human pathogen has not happened. To many, it appears that the draconian measures proposed and taken as a result of the UN announcement in 2004 have worked to prevent the predicted nightmare.

However, with hindsight, it is now clear that there was an over-reaction in some areas and huge amounts of resources were wasted. Much of the over-reaction is understandable and possibly could not have been avoided.

Among the more wasteful actions taken by many countries was the stockpiling of an anti-viral agent whose effectiveness against the virus was untested. Large amounts of resources were spent on Tamiflu, produced by multinational giant Roche and licensed to many other drug companies throughout the world. The Philippines was among the countries that stockpiled Tamiflu.

The fact that the anti-viral agent is now known to have had little effect on the course of known human cases of the disease has thrown grave doubt on the value of maintaining these stockpiles. Moreover, expectedly, critics of the global pharmaceutical industry have raised suspicions that stockpiling as a policy option was promoted more for commercial profit reasons than science-based health concerns.

In any case, the threat of a deadly pandemic still exists. It now seems that the best approaches to preventing its occurrence are those undertaken by sectors other than health, such as the agriculture and wildlife sectors.

The Philippines is the only Asean country that has to date not experienced an outbreak in either domestic or wild flocks of birds. However, the government has correctly warned against complacency and continued vigilance by concerned agencies is still necessary. Health institutions should continue to ensure preparedness to deal with any occurrences.

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Even as the bicameral bodies of Congress continue to negotiate the final draft of the much-anticipated "Cheaper Medicines Law," the debate on generics within the health sector is now raging. Stirred by a provision in the House version that prohibits the use of brand names in prescription writing, conservative physicians are worried by the loss of control over their patients’ behavior by the transfer of decision-making on drugs to retail outlets. On the other hand, generics advocates maintain that this provision will further encourage rational use of medicines through a reinforcement of the need to inform consumers with evidence-based arguments rather than professional authority.

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The first Rafael M. Salas Golf Cup will be held Jan. 17 at the Eagle Ridge Golf and Country Club, General Trias, Cavite. The tournament, in honor of the first UNFPA executive director and former executive secretary, is for the benefit of the advocacy group, the Philippine Forum for Population and Development.