Rate hike won't
stunt growth;
Tetangco says move 'decisive'
By JIMMY CALAPATI
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Gov. Amando
Tetangco yesterday said that the Monetary Board's decision to
increase interest rates "aggressively" at half a percentage
point is "decisive" and will not stunt growth.
"Any growth sacrifice over the near term is
not expected to be large; in fact, appropriate rate hikes could
reduce the long term cost to output growth from prolonged
inflation which will be very corrosive to growth," Tetangco
said.
The increase in key rates helped support the
peso which jumped to 44.455 last Friday. it closed at 44.53
yesterday.
The increase brings the BSP's key policy
interest rates to 5.75 percent for the overnight borrowing or
reverse repurchase (RRP) facility and 7.75 percent for the
overnight lending or repurchase (RP) facility.
"Of course there is a delicate policy balance
between controlling inflation and maintaining the momentum of
demand at a reasonable pace," Tetangco said.
He added that control of inflation is at the
very top of BSP's policy priorities.
The government earlier revised its growth
forecast for 2008 to 5.7-6.6 percent due to the adverse global
downturn brought by high oil and food prices.
BSP said that even a "5 percent growth would
be robust".
Tetangco said that price stability is a
necessary ingredient for sustained economic growth.
"Present conditions provide latitude for
monetary policy with the buoyancy of aggregate demand suggesting
room for measured policy response," Tetangco said.
"No one, not even the rating agencies or the
IMF, anticipated the virulence or the length of the price
surges," Tetangco said.
He said that the decision of the MB shows
their readiness and commitment to bring inflation down towards
its desired path.
"The MB noted second round effects showing a
more pervasive generalized impact. A rise in inflation
expectations was also palpable and the MB wanted to act
decisively to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched in
the psyche of markets and consumers," Tetangco added.
June inflation reached 11.4 percent, highest
in 14 years. BSP even said that inflation for 2008 will peak by
October, reaching to "at least 12 percent".
BSP last week also revised its inflation
forecast from 7 to 9 percent to 9 to 11 percent for 2008.
The MB, in its assessment of price
conditions, noted that concurrent and interrelated shocks to the
economy-such as the persistent surge in oil prices and spikes in
commodity prices-have contributed to elevated inflation
readings.
Tetangco said that if sustained high
inflation unseats expectations this would complicate
macroeconomic management and possibly give rise to a wage price
spiral that would be extremely costly.
BSP said a sustained high inflation can
unseat inflation expectations and potentially create a repeating
cycle of lingering inflation and wage pressures that could prove
costly to the economy.
By responding promptly to inflation risks,
the BSP intends to reduce the risks to inflation expectations
and the long-term cost to output growth from prolonged high
inflation.
Authorities believe that the series of policy
adjustments will help to steer inflation towards its desired
path for the medium term.
But Fitch Ratings on Friday said that the
move of the BSP for monetary tightening was "slightly delayed".
"When spillover or second round effects
became evident, the BSP was quick to act by raising interest
rates," Tetangco countered.
He said that he believes it is appropriate
for monetary policy to accommodate first round effects and to
monitor closely unfolding developments before reacting
prematurely.
"Earlier BSP readings were that price
developments were supply side in origin with mainly global roots
and expected to be largely transitory," Tetangco said.