Mandate of heaven

Gloria Arroyo has lost the mandate of heaven.

And no, we are not being superstitious, believing that the natural and man-made calamities are signs from heaven Gloria has lost the right to govern.

Disasters, especially acts of God, are a given. They occur more or less regularly. They come not in punishment for our sins – or of our leaders. But it is in how governments respond to calamities that their legitimacy is tested.

There are no ambitious warlords waiting in the wings to throw Gloria out from throne (or are there?). Modern governments are more resilient than ancient oriental despotism in riding out dysfunctions in the body politic. But Gloria’s ability to deal with hunger and discontent is weakening day by day, perhaps irreversibly.

Take the rice crisis. The government in the previous two last months bet the whole house on the likelihood no big typhoons would strike the country well until the harvests are in by October. Supply of rice was adequate, officials said. Thus, there was no reason to go to the foreign market where prices were at record levels of $1,000 a ton.

There was a shortage of 600,000 tons from the programmed importation of 2.1 million tons. But no problem, the officials assured us. The 600,000 tons that the government refused to buy was intended primarily as a "buffer" stock. Government could outwait (outwit?) the foreign rice trading speculators.

With 300,000 hectares of rice crops laid to waste by typhoon Frank, mainly in Western Visayas, Gloria and Arthur Yap have lost the bet. Having three square meals is the least of their worries, but how about the families which at the current rice prices of P34 to P36 a kilo for the cheapest variety are already having a hard time making both ends meet?

Reports tell of devastated farms in Iloilo and Aklan. There have been no updates from Capiz, which must have suffered the same blows. Those three are major rice-surplus provinces, feeding the needs of Negros and Cebu. Let’s see how Yap would shuffle the thin stocks in government warehouses when practically all regions are suffering from dwindling supply.

How about the funds needed to rehabilitate the destroyed crops and infrastructure? Gloria has been handing out cash in the name of compassion for the poor. The need to raise money for post-typhoon rehabilitation is now showing the foolishness of "Katas ng VAT" giveaways.

Gloria, by herself, cannot bankrupt the national treasury. The Bangko Sentral’s plant in Quezon City can always go overtime printing money, at the price of double-digit inflation. Banks will always have the cash to lend to the government, at the price of starving business and industry.

What does Gloria care? She is exiting in 2010 anyway. And that is both our burden and consolation. She can do her worst but we will survive somehow.