Opposition Manila

Note that the field research was done while many may not yet have been aware of the full composition of the senatorial tickets of Team Unity and the Genuine Opposition. In fact, Team Unity candidates Vic Magsaysay and Sultan Jamalul Kiram were not listed in the choices. Cesar Montano, who substituted for Jericho Petilla on February 14, was, however, listed as a senatorial choice.

Removing the names of those who were unable to file their certificates of candidacy as of the Comelec deadline, such as Mark Jimenez, Lito Atienza, Edu Manzano, Kit Tatad, Orly Mercado, Boy Herrera, Oscar Orbos, Solita Monsod, among a list of 57 names, the respondents in the City of Manila chose the following as their top choices:

Candidate                    Voting for         Rank

Loren Legarda                    (GO)              63.2 1-2

Ping Lacson                      (GO)              56.4 1-4

Chiz Escudero                    (GO)              50.9 2-5

Alan Cayetano                    (GO)             50.6 2-5

Kiko Pangilinan                   (Ind)             43.2 3-8

Noynoy Aquino                   (GO)             41.2 5-9

Gringo Honasan                   (Ind)             38.4 5-11

Ralph Recto                      (TU)             36.1 5-13

Tito Sotto                        (TU)            34.7 6-13

Manny Villar                      (GO)            32.9 7-13

Joker Arroyo                      (TU)            31.0 7-13

Koko Pimentel                    (GO)            29.2 8-15

Ed Angara                         (TU)            22.9 12-21

John Osmeña                      (GO)            20.8 14-23

Mike Defensor                     (TU)             19.9 14-23

Sonny Trillanes                     (GO)           19.5 14-24

Sonia Roco                         (GO)           17.7 14-26

Migs Zubiri                        (TU)            15.7 16-30

Tessie Aquino Oreta                 (TU)           11.9 22-36

Nikki Coseteng                      (GO)          10.6 23-40

Prospero Pichay                     (TU)           8.4 26-45

Richard Gomez                     (Ind)           8.1 26-46

Chavit Singson                     (TU)           7.1 28-48

Cesar Montano                     (TU)           6.4 29-49

All the candidates have 90 percent or higher awareness levels, except for Pichay with 73 percent, Sonia Roco with 76 percent, Sonny Trillanes with 77 percent, Nikki Coseteng and Migs Zubiri with 82 percent, and Koko Pimentel with 89 percent. John Osmeña, Tessie Oreta and Mike Defensor have a 90 percent awareness in Manila.

The score for the first twelve is 7 for the Genuine Opposition, 3 for the Team Unity, and 2 (Honasan and Pangilinan) for those who are running independently of the two mainstream coalitions. If you consider the two independents as more oppositionist than allied with GMA, the score becomes 9-3 for the opposition.

Within striking distance are 3 from GO, namely John Osmeña, Sonny Trillanes and Sonia Roco, and 2 from TU, namely Angara and Defensor. Osmeña and Roco have huge regional bailiwicks to draw votes from (the Bisaya vote for both, plus Bicol for Roco). Defensor’s bailiwick is supposed to be the NCR. Angara in all his previous elections, has been in the top five here. If Mike D is not getting enough support from his supposed bailiwick, how would Tol fare elsewhere in the country?

It is reasonable to assume that the sentiment in Manila is, but for some hometown exceptions, the sentiment of the National Capital Region. To a lesser extent, it could be reflective of the Mega Manila region, which includes Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite and Laguna. Again, but for hometown favorites, the NCR sentiment radiates to the Lingayen to Lucena corridor.

It is interesting to note a sharp decline in voter conversion for Tito Sotto, who used to rank in the top 5 of the senatorial derby nationwide, with a top 4 performance in NCR. Now he is number 9, in his bailiwick. The fact that he switched from opposition to administration may have cost him plenty, and likely would affect even his chances in the Lingayen to Lucena corridor, which accounts for close to 40 percent of the nation’s total. Ralph Recto converts only slightly more than a third of his awareness rating into votes, and Joker converts less than a third, precariously perched at No.11.

Chiz and Alan, with awareness in the low 90’s, convert 45 percent into votes, propelling them at the third and fourth rankings, overtaking the heretofore "mega"-favorite Kiko Pangilinan. Loren and Ping have conversions of 61 and 58 percent, respectively.

Gringo Honasan is still a strong favorite, even if hardly seen and hardly heard. Surprising too is the showing of Trillanes, who converts close to a third of his yet low awareness of 77 percent into a 19.5 percent vote. If he ups his awareness to the 90’s, and increases his conversion ratio to 35 percent, he could pull an astounding surprise. The same goes for Sonia Roco, who should expect a sentimental Bicol vote plus part of the Bisaya vote.

From where I stand, John Osmeña is certain to make it, possibly pulling down Joker Arroyo. Osmeña has the bailiwicks, provided they deliver without too much garcification. If Koko Pimentel can fortify his Mindanao bailiwick, and Manny Villar’s ads work the kind of trick that did it for Mar Roxas in 2004, Manny could yet be in the top 6, and this would bring Tito Sotto staring at a possible cliffhanger.

The opposition’s work is clear. If they push down the only five possible winners in TU, they pull up the others in GO. The place to do this is Luzon. With the right strategy, an oppositionist Luzon could shut the entire TU out of its daylights. At 50-60 percent demonstration effect, specially with media pervasiveness, the voter sentiment in Mega-Manila could infect the regional capitals of Mindanao and parts of the Visayas not so given to feudal or warlord politics. Why they are yet bogged down by the "to be or not to be" issue of Kiko, three weeks into the campaign, is beyond tears or stitches to comprehend, depending on where you sit.

Chavit Singson has 92 percent awareness, but that converts to only 7.1 percent voting for him. Cesar Montano, who was placing second or third six months back in the vice-mayoralty race of Manila, is converting his 94 percent awareness into a mere 6.4 percent. Unless there is a dramatic improvement in the rankings of both in NCR by the March survey, which as I said, infects the Lingayen to Lucena corridor quite fast and contagiously, they might as well go fly a kite.

The senatorial derby, ceteris paribus, or all things being equal, is an opposition lark. It is theirs to lose.

But then ceteris paribus does not happen in this benighted country, where the scales of Comelec are tipped in favor of the administration, loaded down with ill-gotten gold, and more.

As for the mayoralty fight in Manila, which was the main purpose of the survey, my ink has dried up. Suffice it to say that 43 percent of Manilans will "surely not vote" for whichever local candidate is supported by the purveyors of Team Unity.