Some political and economic observers insist that there isn’t much to be worried about. Government spokespersons, for example, explain that the Philippine economy in the year 2008 is not as dependent on the US market as the Philippine economy of 1998 or 1988 was. They cite our export figures, for which the US accounts for about 18 percent. And they also point to the "traditional" saving grace of our economy, year in and year out – the OFWs – as being so dispersed throughout the world that we are provided enough "cushion" should the US economy contract.

Unfortunately – and maybe it is due to the pessimistic political mood in the country – I do not see the daily news about the US economy’s roller coaster ride with as little concern as some observers do. It is true that the volume of our exports to the US has gone down – but the world economy is also much more intertwined today than it was in 1998 or 1988 such that a political upheaval in one part of the world has world-wide effects. What more a downturn of the world’s largest economy?

Furthermore, the most recent "gem" of the economy – the mushrooming call centers dotting the landscape of such cities as Baguio, Cebu, Iloilo and Davao as much as Metro Manila’s – is closely intertwined with the US economy. If the latter turns south – if consumer spending is less, if factory production tanks, if US exports shrink – won’t these also result in the stalling of the back-of-the-office operations that have been sprouting like grass over the last three or so years?

I think there is considerable reason to ramp up our efforts to find more and more cushion for a potential slowdown of the US economy. Of course all of our efforts will again be band-aid solutions – but here’s hoping it will not include selling more of our national patrimony to other states just to raise much needed capital – plus the additional "bukol" for the boys!

***

As if the "R" word was not enough, we now hear of shortages in rice and even in corn, and the corresponding need for government to divert part of the national budget for the importation of rice from such neighbors as Thailand and Vietnam.

Again, we know that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. But we also know that in the political sphere the reaction can oftentimes be much more than equal. Which could very well be the case here.

First, there is the diversion of capital – capital which will now have to be used to import rice but which could have been used to, among others, build more houses, complete schools, stock hospitals, pay government employees, increase retirement benefits. The list is endless.

Second, there is the (further) damage to the government’s credibility – how often have we been told that the economy is looking good, that life is getting better, that the prospects for the future for both rich and poor is looking brighter.

And third, while a rice shortage should spur more and more farmers to either shift to rice production or find ways and means to improve productivity, the reality is that our farmers are a dying breed – more and more farmer children prefer to become blue (if not white) collar workers and leave the farms behind. Which in turn result in more and more farms being left idle, or being converted into subdivisions, commercial centers, or special economic zones. The net result is a guarantee that the cycle of shortages will have no end as population grows and total area for rice production shrinks with the shrinking of the farmer population.

More than the President’s conversation with Romulo Neri on the NBN-ZTE scam, isn’t this issue more properly an issue of national security?

***

I was surprised at the number of passengers standing around the departure gates of the PAL/Air Philippines Centennial terminal yesterday afternoon. I don’t think I have ever seen that terminal as busy as it was yesterday.

There were all types of passengers – locals and foreigners, Filipinos who were clearly balikbayans and Filipinos who were clearly our brothers of the Muslim faith; ordinary folk as well as big shots like Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and Rep. Carissa Coscoluella, both of whom were waiting for a slightly delayed PAL flight to take them to Cebu for separate speaking engagements.

As for me, I was with Gerard Francisco and MC Caceres of the Coca-Cola Tigers waiting for our flight to Davao, where the Tigers meet the Talk N Text Phone Pals tomorrow for what I bill as "Unfinished Business" – actually the very first official game of the Fiesta Conference of the Philippine Basketball Association. This will be held in Panabo City, Davao del Norte, and I am looking forward to both the Tigers and Phone Pals providing the residents of Panabo and nearby areas the type of quality basketball that the PBA is slowly beginning to be known for, again. Definitely, the ten teams are much more equal in strength now, and every game is anybody’s ballgame.

Btw, I enjoyed that short flight to Davao on PAL’s new A319s. I love the video on demand of these new planes, and if not for the fact that the flight was not long enough for a full-feature film I could have viewed one of four available in flight, all of which I failed to catch on the big screen. Instead I quietly laughed through the Canadian comedy short features and picked up a few new things from two other educational features.