loria Arroyo and
Art Yap are play-ing a high stakes poker game in their announcement yesterday
that the country has already imported enough rice at 1.6 million tons to tide
the country over the approaching lean months.
They claim the 600,000-ton supply that the government is
scheduled to bid out on Monday is intended not to meet projected demand but to
maintain a buffer, presumably to be drawn upon in emergencies. This claim flies
in the face of the recommendation of an inter-agency committee on rice and corn,
of which the agriculture department is the lead agency, for importation of 2.2
million for the year. So what gives?
From where we sit, we see Gloria and Yap’s assurance as
pitched at the suppliers who intend to participate in next week’s tender. They
are telling the market that the government could afford to reject tenders in
whole or in part so that would-be suppliers had better come up with prices
better than the top price of $1,200 a ton in last month’s tender.
The approach in a way makes sense because the Philippines has
been the biggest buyer this year in the world market. Without the Philippine
purchases, rice prices would not have tripled from their levels at the start of
the year.
The obvious question is: Will the rice suppliers fold in the
face of Gloria’s and Art’s bluff? The May 5 tender is limited to state trading
agencies. Thailand has already announced it would not be joining the tender
because its estimated 1.2 million surplus is earmarked for its own emergency
buffer. That leaves Vietnam as the only country with an exportable surplus.
Given this fact, so why hold a tender at all? Why not
directly negotiate with Vietnam? Here is where Gloria and Art’s ace up the
sleeve turns out to be face up on the table for all to see.
The government has long been trying to secure more rice from
Hanoi. Arroyo even personally appealed to Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan
Dung to make available up to 1.5 million tons for the Philippines, resulting in
the signing of a memorandum of agreement early in March. That Vietnam has failed
to deliver on its commitment only means that it also does not enough to spare.
Conventional wisdom says Gloria will buy imported rice at any
price to ensure adequate supply, especially the subsidized variety intended for
the poor. It’s her stay in power which is at stake and the money is not hers
after all.
Why then this high-risk gamble? Frankly we don’t know.
