DUE TO HIGH
OIL, RICE PRICES
Gov’t to recast
targets this year
The Development Budget and Coordination
Committee will recast government growth targets this year,
starting by slashing GDP forecast from 6.3-7 percent range to
6-6.7 percent range.
Inflation target likewise has been moved up
from the current 3-4 percent o 4-5 percent due to the rapid
spikes in food and oil prices.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is targeting
four percent plus or minus one percentage point or 3-5 percent.
The DBCC said a stronger peso would help
temper the rise in prices. The DBCC is now looking at a range of
40-43 to the dollar, better than current forecast of 42-45.
The DBCC is keeping its assumption on the
average 91-day Treasury bill rate of 3.5-4.5 percent.
The weighted average for all T-bills is
expected at 4.6 percent.
Also, the inter-agency committee is
maintaining the exports and imports growth targets for this year
of eight percent and nine percent, respectively.
The country grew by 7.3 percent last year,
the fastest in more than three decades. The DBCC said the
economy would remain resilient from a sharp decline in the US
economy, as remittances would continue to remain robust and
support spending.
The DBCCC said that due to higher oil and
rice prices, spending would weaken and eventually hurt growth.
Spending is the main growth driver of the economy.
At the same time, the DBCC is looking at
adjusting its macroeconomic assumptions to take into account
these recent developments.
Accordingly, average Dubai crude price for
this year would be revised to $88 per barrel, at the high end of
the original assumption of $80-90.
Oil prices have surged to up to $122 per
barrel on the world market on tight supply and strong demand
conditions, resulting in sharp adjustments in domestic pump
prices.