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DUE TO HIGH OIL, RICE PRICES
Gov’t to recast targets this year

The Development Budget and Coordination Committee will recast government growth targets this year, starting by slashing GDP forecast from 6.3-7 percent range to 6-6.7 percent range.

Inflation target likewise has been moved up from the current 3-4 percent o 4-5 percent due to the rapid spikes in food and oil prices.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is targeting four percent plus or minus one percentage point or 3-5 percent.

The DBCC said a stronger peso would help temper the rise in prices. The DBCC is now looking at a range of 40-43 to the dollar, better than current forecast of 42-45.

The DBCC is keeping its assumption on the average 91-day Treasury bill rate of 3.5-4.5 percent.

The weighted average for all T-bills is expected at 4.6 percent.

Also, the inter-agency committee is maintaining the exports and imports growth targets for this year of eight percent and nine percent, respectively.

The country grew by 7.3 percent last year, the fastest in more than three decades. The DBCC said the economy would remain resilient from a sharp decline in the US economy, as remittances would continue to remain robust and support spending.

The DBCCC said that due to higher oil and rice prices, spending would weaken and eventually hurt growth. Spending is the main growth driver of the economy.

At the same time, the DBCC is looking at adjusting its macroeconomic assumptions to take into account these recent developments.

Accordingly, average Dubai crude price for this year would be revised to $88 per barrel, at the high end of the original assumption of $80-90.

Oil prices have surged to up to $122 per barrel on the world market on tight supply and strong demand conditions, resulting in sharp adjustments in domestic pump prices.

 


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