BANGKOK - A proposed "OPEC-style" rice cartel
in Southeast Asia will go nowhere due to the inability of
governments to cooperate with each other and control output from
their farmers, analysts and traders said on Friday.
Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, a TV
chef whose main contact with rice is cooking it, has revived the
long-dormant idea of a price-setting body involving producers
Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.
The proposal, which threatens to add to
global food supply fears amid record high rice prices, failed to
gain traction seven years ago when it was first floated by
Bangkok - and most see little chance it will fare better this
time around.
"I don't think it would work. All they can do
is agree on a price, but they can't control the supply like
oil," said Graham Catterwell, an economic analyst with 30 years
of experience in Thailand and the region. "It's going nowhere."
The five mainland Southeast Asian nations
produce a combined 60 million tons of milled rice each year,
about 14 percent of world output. But only Thailand, the world's
number one rice exporter, and Vietnam have major surpluses, last
year accounting for about 47 percent of world wheat trade.
"We are all rice producers. Why don't we
cooperate in managing prices?" Samak said on Wednesday after
talks with visiting Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein.
Samak said Thein Sein had agreed in principle
to the idea, but the Burmese general did not speak to reporters.
Myanmar has resumed limited rice exports this year, mainly to
South Asia, after several years off the market, trade sources
say.
The proposed group - which includes two
democracies, two communist-led governments and a military
dictatorship - appears in no hurry to hammer out the details.
Agriculture ministers will discuss the
proposal in September at a meeting of the 10-nation Asean
regional group in Vietnam, Cambodian Agriculture Minister Chan
Sarun said on Friday.
Impoverished Cambodia, where 85 percent of a
14 million population are farmers, would join if a cartel
offered technology benefits like better seed to boost output, he
said.
Cambodia produced 6.7 million tons of rice in
2007-08, of which 1.5 million tons went for export, well below
the nearly 9 million tons Thailand will ship this year.
Like several other big suppliers including
Vietnam and India, Cambodia slapped restrictions on exports this
year in an effort to secure domestic supply and keep local
prices down.
"We must produce more rice to sell to
overseas markets," Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen recently
said on state television.
Sharing technology is one thing. It's quite
another to set prices and control output like the Organization
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), whose member
nations have often had trouble singing from the same song sheet
even though they pump over a third of the world's oil.
"It's impossible. We can't fix prices as OPEC
does because we can't control our production like OPEC,"
Chookiat Ophaswongse, President of the Thai Rice Exporters
Association, told Reuters.
"It might be easy for communist Laos or
Vietnam to control their farmers, but we can't do that in a
free-market economy like Thailand. Farmers will rush to grow
more rice when prices go up and shift to other crops when prices
fall," he said.
Catterwell said the five countries may agree
on a broad price band, but it would be hard to enforce and
buyers could go elsewhere, such as India, which can export as
much as 5 million tons of rice annually.
Even Samak appears to have moved on from the
price-setting idea, as he was quoted as saying on Friday he was
willing to sell rice to Indonesia at a "friendly price".
Thailand first floated the cartel idea in
2001 when it feared losing market share because its export price
was around $40 a ton higher than Vietnam, India and Pakistan.
The proposal fizzled out then, and it appears
likely to suffer a similar fate this time around.
"With an oil well, you can just turn the
pumps on and off.
You can set quotas for how much to produce, but how do you do
that with rice farmers all over the country?" Catterwell said. -
Reuters