oor Ali Atienza. He didn’t
know what hit him. He was clobbered by Fred Lim in a three-way fight (Vice Mayor
Danny Lacuna was the third candidate) that most analysts were expecting to be
won by the formidable machinery built by Ali’s father, three-term Manila mayor
Lito Atienza.
Ali’s inexperience was one reason he lost. But his and his
running mate Don Bagatsing’s youth could have offset this weakness. Lim and
Lacuna, after all, are no longer spring chickens. Given the demographics (most
of the voters were in the 25-to -35-year-old range), their vitality and movie
screen looks could have swung the vote in their favor.
The baggage that brought down Ali and Don was their party’s
identification with Gloria Arroyo. We understand Mayor Atienza’s shift of
support from President Joseph Estrada to President Arroyo after 2001. Mayor
Atienza himself said that as mayor of the country’s premier city, he had to stay
on the good side of whoever was in Malacañang. It’s realpolitik. He could serve
his constituency better by not antagonizing the national leadership.
Mayor Atienza clearly misread the Manileños’ sentiment. They
were out to punish Gloria (the dreaded kiss of death) and Ali and Don ended up
as collateral damage.
Lim played possum in the early days, eschewing the mounting
of any big campaign sorties or rallies. When he went on the offensive, it came
in the form of heavy television and radio advertisements. And the star of the
ads was – ta ra ran – Erap Estrada. Pollsters projected that Erap’s endorsement
could translate into 36 percent of the votes. Well, that’s about the percentage
of the votes Lim got. Enough to return him to city hall.
Administration propagandists said they have long conceded
Metro Manila to the opposition. But the capital region, they said, is not the
whole Philippines. Out there, they said, local leaders are 95 percent for
Gloria. These local leaders would deliver the decisive votes.
There are indeed places delivering 12-0 votes for Team Unity.
In Maguindanao, for example, there were towns where not a single Genuine
Opposition senatorial candidate won. The "command votes" were trickling in and
administration campaign strategists continue to hope these would be enough to
wipe out the opposition’s lead practically everywhere.
Such hope is being dashed by the opposition candidates’ good
showing in other parts of Mindanao and in the Eastern and Western Visayas.. But
the opposition, in all magnanimity, can concede the "command votes" to Gloria.
She can have Maguindanao and the Ampatuan family anytime. Manila is an
opposition prize beyond price.
