FRIDAY |MAY 18, 2007  | PHILIPPINES

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The Trillanes phenomenon (1)


BY ELLEN TORDESILLAS

THE inclusion of detained Navy officer Antonio Trillanes IV of the Genuine Opposition in the Magic 12 in all credible post-election surveys has been described invariably as a "shocker" and a "coup."

Someone has coined the phrase, "doing it the Trillanes way" to mean coming from behind to score a victory.

Until the last two weeks before election day when he rose to No. 16 in the SWS/Inquirer survey, he was languishing in the 21st to 25th spots.

In the much-awaited Pulse Asia/ABS-CBN nationwide exit poll, Trillanes placed No.9.

A source who visited Trillanes two days after the election said the detained officer is calmly and confidently taking his impending electoral victory. He knows that Malacañang will do everything to frustrate the will of the people but he is confident that the same network of supporters that put him in the winning circle will continue to be vigilant and protect his votes.

The source said Trillanes is not at all surprised by his inclusion in the Magic 12. He said his No. 16 standing which was noted by SWS/Inquirer in its May 2- 4 survey had been reflected in their own surveys as early as the second month of the campaign. He is happy finally their survey figures have been manifested in the votes.

Political analysts are one in describing Trillanes’ win as a protest vote against the administration of Gloria Arroyo.

Adel Tamano, the party spokesman of the Genuine Opposition, waxing ecstatic, said, "A guy who has no money, almost no ads, who’s in jail, will win against the likes of (Prospero) Pichay, who spent over 100 million in ads, win over (Luis) Chavit (Singson), win over so many team-GMA candidates. He is the ultimate protest vote."

While most of the GO candidates tried to temper their attack on Gloria Arroyo, careful not to be labeled "negative" hoping to appeal to the middle-class voters lulled in their comfort zones, Trillanes went on the offensive calling Gloria Arroyo a "fraudulently enlisted commander-in-chief."

SWS’ Mahar Mangahas attributes Trillanes’ winning support to the perception that he is being persecuted.

Although Malacañang officials are still hoping against hope that the final numbers will see Trillanes out of the winning circle, Executive Eduardo Ermita credits "high media exposure" for Trillanes support. A Palace functionary, who declined to be identified, trivialized Trillanes’ appeal to the voters to his being "eye-catching."

Our man on the street interviews showed three qualities that voters identify with Trillanes: naninindigan (takes a stand), lumalaban (fights), handang magsakripisyo (willing to sacrifice)

If and when his Senate win becomes official, Trillanes should find satisfaction in recalling the initial reactions to his announcement that he would be running for senator, especially Press Secretary Ignacio Bunye’s condescending "Trillanes who?"

It was this arrogance of Arroyo’s officials that worked greatly for Trillanes, who has been in detention for almost four years because of his involvement in the so-called Oakwood mutiny of July 27, 2003.

Dismissing Trillanes’ senatorial bid as a delusion that those in prison are entitled to, Arroyo’s officials allowed him to register as a voter, and later to file his certificate of candidacy.

Trillanes was ready to run as an independent candidate and he filed his certificate of candidacy as one. The opposition ticket initially was not enthusiastic about his candidacy, citing his inability to campaign physically and his not being known in the provinces. They wanted sure winners and they had more than enough for their ticket. So they thought.

In the beginning, the opposition, then going by the name United Opposition (UNO) had in their lineup political heavyweights: re-electionist Panfilo Lacson, former senators Loren Legarda, Gregorio Honasan, Tito Sotto and John Osmeña. They were expecting the Wednesday group - re-reelectionists Manny Villar, Joker Arroyo, Ralph Recto and Francis Pangilinan to be in their ticket. Young politicians Francis Escudero, Alan Peter Cayetano, Koko Pimentel and Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino were assured of slots in the ticket.

But issues among parties in UNO caused the exclusion of some. Noynoy Aquino couldn’t run alongside Honasan. Between the two, Aquino won so Honasan was excluded.

The exclusion of Honasan didn’t sit well with Sotto, who wanted to run with his whole "gang" – Honasan, Osmeña, and Tessie Aquino-Oreta. There could only be one Aquino in the ticket, and UNO chose Noynoy over his aunt. Sotto, with Oreta, defected to Gloria Arroyo leaving another slot open.

The decision of Joker Arroyo and Ralph Recto to stick it out with Gloria Arroyo left more slots open in the opposition ticket. That paved the way for Trillanes’ inclusion in a major party. He had joined the big league.

Next: Will Malacañang allow Trillanes to win?

 
 


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