Slower growth
provides relief
from inflationary pressures: BSP
By MAX ESTAYO
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas governor Amando
Tetangco Jr. said yesterday the slowing down of economic growth
in the first quarter will provide the needed relief from
inflationary pressures.
This will give the BSP room not to increase
interest rates so that growth can be sustained.
Personal consumption grew a seasonally
adjusted 0.3 percent in the first quarter compared to 1.8
percent in the fourth quarter and the slowdown giving the
central bank room to hold off increasing rates.
The monetary authority meets next Thursday
and economists are divided on whether policy rates would be
raised for the first time since 2005.
Finance secretary Margarito Teves added that
the pump priming and frontloading of government expenses will
result in higher growth for the second quarter.
The National Economic and Development
Authority said the economy grew by 5.2 percent in the first
quarter from 6.4 percent a quarter earlier and was at the low
edge of the government’s 5.2-6.2 percent forecast for the
period.
The inter-agency Development Budget and
Coordination Committee has narrowed its growth target this year
to 5.7-6.5 percent from 6.3-7 percent, anticipating the impact
of high oil and food prices and slower exports on the local
economy.
Tetangco said the decline in the first
quarter was expected given the "above-trend growth" last year.
The economy expanded by 7.2 percent last year, the highest in
more than three decades.
"The slowdown can provide some relief to
inflation, as it reduces pressure from the demand side,"
Tetangco said.
Inflation rose by 8.3 percent in April, its
fastest pace in three years, stoked by food and oil prices.
While the 2008 inflation target of 3-5 percent is expected to be
breached due to the continued escalation of commodity prices,
monetary authorities said the 2009 target of 2.5-4.5 percent
remains intact to date.
Should there be signs that next year’s target
is "at risk," Tetangco said the BSP is ready to act
"preemptively" and "decisively" to contain inflation by
increasing its policy rates.
Tetangco said the BSP is closely monitoring
second-round price pressures that may ensue from the volatile
food and fuel prices.
At the same time, he said monetary
authorities are will also have to continue, "to ensure that the
liquidity that is in the system is just appropriate for the
level of expected economic activity."
"We hope to see higher growth in the second
quarter as the government increases spending on infrastructure
and social services to help affected sectors cope with rising
oil and food prices," Teves said.
"The improved revenue performance in the
first four months would help ensure that the government could
fund higher levels of spending in the coming months," he added.