BY JENNIE L. ILUSTRE

WASHINGTON – History will be written on Tuesday (Wednesday in Manila) as voters elect either the country’s first black president or first woman vice president.

Pollsters, as well as pundits from both parties, say it will be Sen. Barack Obama, 47, Democrat from Illinois, and not Sen. John McCain, 72, Republican from Arizona, and running mate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

They predict Obama will win the popular or one person-one vote. Obama, they pointed out, will also snag more than the required 270 electoral votes which determines who will be the next president.

Karl Rove, former senior presidential advisor to President George W. Bush who masterminded his 2000 election and 2004 reelection wins by forming coalitions of Republican, women, Hispanic, and working class voters and ensuring heavy turn-out on Election Day, said Oct. 26 on "Fox News Sunday" his own electoral map has Obama ahead with 317 electoral votes.

The US does not follow direct voting, or "one person, one vote." Each state, plus the District of Columbia, has a number of electors equal to the number of its senators and congressmen or congresswomen. Called the Electoral College, it is made up of 538 elected representatives, who formally select the president and vice president.

California, which votes Democratic, has the most at 55. Among the hotly contested vote-rich states are New York with 45, Florida 27, Pennsylvania 21, and Ohio 20.

This year’s election could be a reprise of 1992, when James Carville, strategist for Bill Clinton, popularized the campaign battle-cry, "It’s the economy, stupid!"

Obama’s lead began to solidify after the September 15 economic meltdown of America’s top financial institutions, necessitating a $700 billion bail-out, which taxpayers bewail will come from them.

Domestic issues such as the economy have historically favored Democrats. Voters view Republicans as strong on foreign policy and defense issues.

Surveys show the voters are angry over the economic meltdown. A historic 90 percent are worried about the country’s direction that has seen two wars (Iraq and Afghanistan).

They are also hungry for a change from the eight-year Republican rule under Bush.

Pundits say Bush, with his consistent job approval rating in the low 20s, has dragged down McCain’s candidacy.

This year, the battle cry could also be "It’s the turn-out, stupid!"

Obama’s campaign reportedly has eight million volunteers to ensure supporters go to the polls early, as well as on Election Day.

The early votes and absentee votes rule out an Election Day surprise that could favor McCain, said former Clinton strategist George Stephanopolous, who is now with ABC-TV.

Since September, voters from 32 states have been going to polls under an early-vote rule, or through absentee ballots, and they have been overwhelmingly in favor of Obama.

The experts cite the enthusiasm gap, as well as the big "early vote" turn-out, as tell-tale signs. Polls have consistently shown seven in 10 Democratic voters are gung-ho about voting for Obama. Only two Republicans out of 10 feel that way about McCain.

In an interview from New York, Glenn Magpantay, staff attorney for the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF), said: "Turn-out will be the key on November 4 for both parties. It is in every election."

AALDEF has an army of lawyers and volunteers who will ensure voter protection rights at the polls nationwide on Tuesday.

Jon Melegrito, publications associate at public affairs at the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), a top labor union, is one of those ensuring massive turn-out for Obama. He is in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a state on which McCain has pinned his last hopes to win the presidency.

Melegrito is assigned in Allentown and Bethlehem. He said in an email interview Friday: "I’m visiting union households to urge them to go out and vote on Tuesday. Along with other union members in the area, I visit worksites – a nursing facility in Nazareth Township, a candy factory in Allentown, for instance – distributing Get out to Vote (GOTV) leaflets. In the evenings, I make phone calls from our union office."

He added: "This weekend, we expect 30 buses from New York, and I will be heading up a team to knock on doors. The coalition of unions is targeting 3,000 homes. On Election Day, we will continue our precinct walks, and drive senior citizens and others who need a ride to the polls."

He said other AFSCME campaign workers are in the other battleground states of Ohio and Florida, and also in toss-up states Virginia, Indiana and Wisconsin.

This year, the choice for vice president has become an added incentive for voter turn-out, both for and against Palin.

Aurora Ballesteros, 62, from nearby Arlington, Virginia state, patiently stood in line Friday at the Clarendon library from 8 to 9 a.m. "I voted for Obama because I’m a Democrat, I voted straight Democrat," she said Friday.

She said she got dizzy from standing in line for an hour, and also being among big crowds of voters. But she was determined to vote because after watching Palin on TV, she said she thinks Palin "is not qualified" to be president-in-waiting.

Palin, with her star quality and pro-life, pro-gun stand, has energized the Republican base. Democrats, citing her background as mayor and governor, criticize her lack of experience.

But not lifelong Democrat Dr. Lynette Long, mother and author of math books, who is voting for Palin.

In her website, she wrote an article that has been popular with the community. In it she explained that New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who drew 18 million votes in the January-June nominating primary season, deserved to be in the ticket.

She wrote: "I have given my loyalty to the Democratic Party for decades. My party, which is comprised primarily of women, has not put a woman on a presidential ticket for 24 years. My party was disrespectful to all women when they refused to nominate my candidate, Hillary Clinton, for president or vice president, even though she received more votes than any other Democratic or Republican candidate in history."