Crossroads
BSP
prioritizes liquidity to stability
By JIMMY CALAPATI
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has decided
to provide liquidity to the financial system, slashing banks’
reserve requirements by two percentage points and doubling the
repurchase facility.
By pouring P80 billion in the financial
system starting with P20 billion last Friday and P60 billion
this coming Friday it hopes to give banks the cash to keep
operations humming.
The P80 billion will also give banks the cash
to replenish funds being taken out by nervous investors.
The twin moves enabled the central bank to
stave off for a few more weeks, cutting the key interest rates
that may stoke inflation.
The BSP, whose primary duty is to keep prices
stable, continues to be very wary of imported inflation.
Although inflation has tapered off from
August’s 17-year high of 12.5 percent, year-to-date inflation is
still at 9.4 percent compared with 2.7 percent last year.
Standard and Poor’s says that "inflation
remains the predominant challenge" for the country.
"As the largest importer of rice and a net
importer of oil, the Philippine economy is highly vulnerable to
external shocks. This is obvious from the rapid rise in core
inflation in the corresponding period," S&P said.
According to S&P, the economy saw 4.7 percent
and 4.6 percent growth in the first and second quarters of 2008
following higher-than-expected growth of 7.3 percent in
fourth-quarter 2007 as high commodity prices suppressed domestic
demand.
Private domestic demand and government
consumption moderated in second-quarter 2008 but investment
growth rebounded.
Private demand continues to be underpinned by
healthy remittance inflows, which increased at 12.1 percent in
the first half of 2008.
Philippine Equity Partners, Inc. (PEP) said
that the continued up-tick in core inflation, which stood at 7.8
percent from 7.5 percent in September, "justifies the decision
of the monetary authorities to keep policy rates unchanged,
resisting call for them to cut interest rates even as monetary
authorities have shifted from managing inflation to managing
growth."
Jojo Gonzales, PEP analyst, said he expected
inflation to stay in double digits, between 10 to 12 percent, in
the fourth quarter.
PEP says average inflation for 2008 will be
9.5 percent, slowing down to 6.3 percent in 2009.
ING Financial Markets Research said that the
rising core inflation and weak peso warrant BSP’s resistance to
rate cuts, to be taken up at its next policy meeting on Nov. 20.
"(BUT) we believe the BSP will use the
seasonal strengthening of the peso due to increased OFW inflows
in December as the opportunity to cut policy rate," ING analyst
Prakash Sakpal said.
ING sees the Monetary Board cutting its key
rates by 25 basis points at its December 18 meeting. The BSP
expects inflation to surpass government targets for this year
and the next before reaching a "target-consistent path by 2010."
The government expects inflation to fall
within the range of 9-11 percent this year and 6-8 percent in
2009.
Economists expect the BSP to keep its key
interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting on November
20, despite slower inflation rate and the orchestrated rate cuts
by major central banks around the world last month.
Last month, the central bank kept its benchmark interest
rates steady at 6.0 percent after consecutive hikes totaling 100
basis points.