By ALBERT CASTRO
The Philippines is less vulnerable from
external shocks, making it better poised to weather the slowing
global economy, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) yesterday said.
Tom Crouch, ADB deputy director general for
Southeast Asia, said the Philippines "is in a much better
position to handle the economic turbulence" given fiscal
authorities’ handling of the fiscal environment.
"Although it is adversely affected by global
factors, it does not derail the possibility to achieve higher
economic growth," said Crouch.
Crouch said the Philippines had learned "the
hard lessons" of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and "took it to
heart," helping it to weather the added turbulence caused by
current US financial crisis.
"It is impossible to be insulated from the
external factors but it could be less if not for the actions put
in place," he said.
"There had been changes in economic fiscal
environment that makes the Philippines less vulnerable," he
added.
Crouch noted that this was further elaborated
in the government’s decision to move the target of a balanced
budget to 2010.
The continued inflow of remittances and the
resiliency of the country’s services sector will also help the
economy to grow by 4.5 percent for the whole year, the ADB
projected, though the figure is a 150 basis point lower from the
lending agency’s forecast in early 2008. The Philippines grew by
4.6 percent in first semester.
It was also a big plus that the government
resisted calls from pressure groups to take out the VAT in oil,
contributing to the fiscal consolidation.
Going forward, the Philippines has the chance
to improve growth to 4.7 percent, Crouch said.
The ADB see inflation to slowdown to 8
percent in 2009 from an average of 10.5 percent this year. The
oil is expected to average at $109 per barrel, from this year’s
projected $120 per barrel.
He said the deep and prolonged slowdown in the G3 — US,
Eurozone, and Japan — will result in steep decline in trades
while the continued hovering of commodity prices drive inflation
higher.