ational security adviser
Norberto Gonzales has expressed worries that Joma Sison could sabotage the
amnesty being offered to communist rebels. "Could" is the wrong word. We’re 100
percent sure Sison would not only sabotage the amnesty program, but would work
to ensure the program fails. Not through any underhanded efforts but through a
straightforward directive to the rebels, assuming he continues to enjoy
unquestioned leadership, not to take the bait.
A localized amnesty that would bypass Sison and the central
command of the rebellion cannot be dismissed out of hand. We could see a
situation where the Armed Forces would concentrate its forces in a single area.
The rebels would be forced to choose between dying and surrendering. Hopefully
they would opt for the latter. The government could then work to convince the
rebel supporters to shift their allegiance and support. Development projects
would follow.
People would have jobs and livelihood. Justice would reign in
the community. The same blueprint could be replicated in other rebel-controlled
communities nationwide.
And pigs could fly. Gloria Arroyo is the legitimate
president, the traditional politicians and warlords bow obediently to the will
of the people, the military respects human rights, the police enforce the law
without favor, the courts dispense justice with impartiality, and social
services are delivered with dispatch to all.
We are not saying the war against the communist rebellion
cannot be won. But winning presupposes a government working to improve the lot
of the poor and the powerless, and enjoying the trust of the whole people,
including the middle class and the economic and the political elite. Without
this precondition, all efforts to achieve peace – whether through a negotiated
settlement or a military solution or a combination of both – will prove
unavailing.
All this talk about crushing the insurgency before Gloria’s
exit in 2010 is hollow. She is already a lame duck. Her shift to a predominantly
military approach is a non-starter. Given the lack of a political consensus, she
cannot even secure congressional authorization to finance an expanded war. How
much more to rally the people behind a war which is primarily seen as aimed at
distracting attention from the illegitimacy of her administration and the
widespread corruption of the people around her?
We have a proposal for Mahar Mangahas of Social Weather
Stations and Pepe Miranda of Pulse Asia. Could they tack on in their regular
surveys ("angkas lang" as our barber would put it; it won’t cost a thing) a
single question on who respondents trust more: Gloria or Joma?
We have our guess as to the likely results, but nothing beats testing our
conjecture against empirical facts.
